Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 1?
Total Volume
$30.78K
Events
1
Markets
9
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 1?
Vol
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
37%
Top Probability
$30.78K
Volume
9
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Traders on prediction markets currently see a roughly 1 in 3 chance that the high temperature in São Paulo on March 1 will reach 24°C. The most likely outcome, according to the collective bet, is a slightly cooler day, with the market favoring a high in the 22-23°C range. This suggests a mild disagreement among forecasters, but a general consensus that an extreme heat event is not expected.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors are shaping these odds. First, March 1 falls near the end of São Paulo's summer. The city's climate is moderated by its altitude of about 800 meters, which typically prevents the intense heat common in other Brazilian coastal cities. Historical averages for early March in São Paulo are around 28°C for a high, so a prediction in the low-to-mid 20s already accounts for this known mild trend.
Second, the market is likely incorporating recent short-term weather models. If those models show a forecast of clouds or potential rain for that date, traders would logically bet against a very warm, sunny day reaching the high 20s. The low trading volume indicates this is a niche weather bet, not a major event drawing widespread attention.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The only key date is March 1 itself. The market will resolve shortly after, using data from the weather station at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport. The main signal to watch will be the weather forecasts in the 3-5 days leading up to March 1. A significant shift in the predicted cloud cover, chance of rain, or air mass could cause the market probabilities to move.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For short-term weather events like a single day's high temperature, prediction markets often perform reasonably well. They aggregate not just public forecasts, but also the judgments of people who may have local knowledge or are interpreting model data differently. However, the low amount of money wagered here is a limitation. It means the "wisdom of the crowd" is coming from a very small crowd, which can make the prices less stable and more sensitive to a few large bets. Weather also remains inherently unpredictable, so even the best collective guess can be wrong.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets on Polymarket assign only a 37% probability that Sao Paulo's highest temperature on March 1 will reach 24°C. With nine different temperature buckets trading, the market shows thin liquidity at just $31,000 in total volume. The low probability on the 24°C contract indicates traders see warmer conditions as less likely. The most probable outcome is likely concentrated in the 22-23°C range, which is typical for early March. The market's structure suggests low conviction, a common feature in weather markets close to resolution where final forecasts are already public.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Sao Paulo's climate in early March is historically mild, marking the tail end of the Southern Hemisphere summer. Average high temperatures for the city at this time typically sit between 27-28°C. The fact that the leading contract is for a cooler 24°C, and is priced below 40%, directly contradicts this climatology. This discrepancy points to a specific short-term weather forecast dominating trader behavior. The most likely explanation is an anticipated cold front or increased cloud cover and precipitation from the South Atlantic, which can suppress daytime highs significantly below seasonal averages. Traders are betting on this transient meteorological event overriding the historical baseline.
What Could Change These Odds
For a market this close to resolution, the odds are essentially locked. All relevant weather model data and nowcasting observations for March 1 are already known, leaving no room for new information to shift probabilities. The primary remaining variable is the precise methodology of the resolution source, Wunderground. A discrepancy in the exact reporting station or the rounding of the final recorded temperature could shift the outcome between adjacent 1°C buckets. However, this is a technical risk, not a forecasting one. The market has already incorporated the final forecast, and the 37% price for 24°C is the market's final assessment of that temperature being verified at the specific airport station.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
