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GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsElections

Oregon Democratic Senate nominee?

Name: Oregon Democratic Senate nominee?
End: 2026-05-19T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$17.37K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Oregon Democratic Senate nominee?

Vol

$17.37K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $17.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

1.0%avg

max 1.2%

Price gaps

of 2 cross-platform

Calculate

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Needs review

This pair needs a current review of its rules, outcomes and deadlines.

Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(2)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon? Needs review	99%	98%	1%
Will Jacob Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon? Needs review	1%	2%	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$17.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Oregon Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oregon Democratic Senate nominee?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Oregon Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.24)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (2 mkts) vs Kalshi (2 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jacob Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 19, 2026): Vol $11.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.1% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.3% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.2% spread between platforms.

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Saved matching review

Needs review: 2 pairs

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

KALSHIElections

Oregon Democratic Senate nominee?

Volume$0.00

Markets2

POLYMARKETPolitics

Oregon Democratic Senate Primary Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Volume$17.37K

Markets2

2 of 2

Sort:

Needs review

This pair needs a current review of its rules, outcomes and deadlines.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average98.3%

Polymarket+1.2 pp

98.9%

Kalshi

97.7%

Difference:1.2 pp

Polymarket higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 98.9¢No 1.1¢

KKalshi

Yes 97.7¢No 2.3¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Will Jeff Merkley be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oregon?

If Jeff Merkley wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Oregon Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Jeff Merkley wins the party's nomination.

Needs review

This pair needs a current review of its rules, outcomes and deadlines.

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Jacob Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average1.2%

Polymarket

0.9%

Kalshi+0.8 pp

1.6%

Difference:0.8 pp

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 0.9¢No 99.2¢

KKalshi

Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Jacob Ryan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Will Jacob Ryan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oregon?

If Jacob Ryan wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Oregon Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after Jacob Ryan wins the party's nomination.

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Discussion

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Next Market Deadline

Calculating time remaining…

Nov 03, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

Saved price pairs

Largest saved gap: 1.2 percentage points.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/phd4zt" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Oregon Democratic Senate nominee?"></iframe>

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Oregon Democratic Senate nominee?