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Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
$319.49K
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Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
$319.49K
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a con
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets give this a 2% probability. That means traders see a Trump impeachment by June 30, 2026 as highly unlikely but not impossible. The market is essentially saying the House would need a political earthquake to move on this timeline.
Volume sits at $319K, moderate for a longshot market. The low price reflects that even with Democratic control of the House, impeachment requires a simple majority vote on articles. Republicans currently hold the House 218-213. Democrats would need to flip at least four seats in 2026 to take control, and even then, the timeline is tight.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The biggest factor is simple math. Republicans control the House. No Republican majority has impeached a president from their own party. The 2026 midterms happen in November, giving Democrats no path to House control before June 30.
Historical precedent matters. Trump was impeached twice before, in 2019 and 2021, both times with a Democratic House. The 2021 impeachment happened after January 6, with just 10 House Republicans voting yes. Even in that extreme scenario, the vote was 232-197. A similar event would need to occur before June 30.
The 2024 election and Trump's ongoing legal battles create noise but not action. His criminal convictions in New York, the Georgia election case, and the federal documents case have all failed to move House Republicans toward impeachment. The House GOP views these as politically motivated.
What Could Change These Odds
A major scandal emerging before June 30 could shift the market. Think something comparable to Watergate or a direct abuse of power with clear evidence. But the bar is extremely high. House Republicans have shown no appetite for investigating their own president.
The 2026 midterm elections are the real catalyst, but they happen after this market resolves. If Democrats win the House in November 2026, impeachment becomes possible but that timeline falls outside this contract.
The most realistic path to a "yes" resolution would require a complete breakdown in Trump's relationship with House Republican leadership, combined with a scandal that makes continued support politically toxic. That scenario exists at roughly 2% odds, which is exactly what the market is pricing.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, was impeached twice by the House of Representatives during his first term: first in December 2019 on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress related to pressure on Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, and second in January 2021 for incitement of insurrection following the January 6 Capitol attack. He was acquitted by the Senate both times. After winning the 2024 presidential election, Trump returned to office in January 2025 as the 47th president. This prediction market asks whether the House will approve one or more articles of impeachment against him by June 30, 2026, a date that falls roughly 18 months into his second term. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the House passes articles by simple majority vote, regardless of Senate trial, conviction, or removal. This is a lower bar than full removal, as House impeachment requires only a majority vote, while Senate conviction needs a two-thirds supermajority. The political dynamics of the 2025-2026 Congress are central: Republicans control the House with a narrow majority (as of early 2025), making Democratic-led impeachment unlikely unless some Republicans cross party lines. However, if Democrats retake the House in the 2026 midterm elections, they could initiate impeachment proceedings before the June 30 deadline. Interest in this market reflects ongoing debates about presidential accountability, the use of impeachment as a political tool, and the potential for Trump's second term to face legal or constitutional challenges. Key factors include the results of the 2026 midterms, any major scandals or controversies, and the willingness of House Republicans to break with their party. The market also touches on broader questions about the stability of democratic norms and the frequency of impeachment in modern U.S. politics.
Historical Context
Impeachment in the United States is a constitutional process outlined in Article II, Section 4, allowing the House to charge a president with 'Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.' Only three presidents have been impeached by the House: Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Donald Trump twice in 2019 and 2021. Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 before a full House vote on articles of impeachment. No president has been convicted by the Senate, though Johnson and Clinton were acquitted, and Trump was acquitted twice. The historical precedents show that impeachment is rare and often politically charged, with partisan lines largely determining outcomes. The 2019 impeachment of Trump centered on his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, where Trump asked for an investigation into Joe Biden while withholding military aid. The House voted 229-198 to impeach on abuse of power and 230-197 on obstruction of Congress. The 2021 impeachment followed the January 6 attack, with the House voting 232-197 for incitement of insurrection. Ten Republicans joined Democrats in that vote, the most bipartisan support for any presidential impeachment. In both cases, the Senate fell short of the two-thirds majority needed for conviction. The frequency of impeachment attempts against Trump is notable: he faced two impeachments in four years, more than any other president. Since leaving office in 2021, Trump has faced four criminal indictments, including federal charges related to classified documents and election interference, a Georgia state case, and a New York state conviction for falsifying business records. These legal issues have kept impeachment as a recurring topic in political discourse, with some Democrats arguing that the House should have moved faster in 2021. The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 2026, will determine which party controls the House for the second half of Trump's term. Historically, the president's party loses seats in midterms: the average loss is about 28 House seats since World War II. If Democrats gain control, they could initiate impeachment proceedings before the June 30, 2026 deadline, though the timeline would be tight.
Why It Matters
The outcome of this market has direct implications for presidential accountability and the balance of power between Congress and the executive branch. If Trump is impeached a third time, it would break the record for most impeachments of a single president and further test the constitutional limits of the impeachment power. A 'Yes' resolution would signal that a majority of the House believes Trump committed high crimes or misdemeanors, even if the Senate does not convict. This could influence public opinion, shape the 2026 midterm elections, and affect Trump's political legacy. It could also set a precedent for impeaching presidents based on actions taken during a second term, which has no historical parallel. For financial markets, political instability from an impeachment process could create short-term uncertainty, particularly if it involves allegations of corruption or abuse of power that affect trade policy, federal spending, or international relations. Investors may react to news of impeachment articles being drafted or voted on, as it could distract from legislative priorities and increase partisan gridlock. The broader social impact includes debates about the rule of law, the role of the judiciary, and whether impeachment has become a routine political weapon rather than a last resort. Citizens who support Trump may view a third impeachment as a partisan attack, while opponents may see it as necessary to uphold democratic norms. The market also reflects the polarization of American politics, where impeachment is increasingly tied to electoral cycles and party control.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
