Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

Name: UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
End: 2026-10-25T03:59:59.999Z

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UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

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19 markets tracked

Fight to Go the Distance?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	51%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	51%
Will the fight be won by decision?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end before Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end before Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will Grant Dawson win in Round 1?	Poly	51%
Will Grant Dawson win in Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will Grant Dawson win in Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will Nurullo Aliev win in Round 1?	Poly	51%
Will Nurullo Aliev win in Round 2?	Poly	51%
Will Nurullo Aliev win in Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end in a decision or draw?	Poly	51%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Nurullo Aliev win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	50%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	50%
UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)	Poly	41%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Nurullo Aliev" if Nurullo Aliev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be off

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 25, 2026 (13 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026.

It will resolve to "Nurullo Aliev" if Nurullo Aliev is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be off

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026.

It will resolve to "Nurullo Aliev" if Nurullo Aliev is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $486
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Grant Dawson: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [Nurullo Aliev: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Grant Dawson win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Nurullo Aliev win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the fight be won by decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the fight end before Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the fight end before Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Grant Dawson win in Round 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Grant Dawson win in Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Grant Dawson win in Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Nurullo Aliev win in Round 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Nurullo Aliev win in Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Nurullo Aliev win in Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the fight end in a decision or draw?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

Volume$0.00

Markets19

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POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decide

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by decision?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by decision?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, is won by decision, including unanimous, split, majority, and technical decisions. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a dra

POLYMARKET

Will the fight end before Round 2?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight end before Round 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, officially ends before Round 2 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, coun

POLYMARKET

Will the fight end before Round 3?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight end before Round 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, officially ends before Round 3 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, coun

POLYMARKET

Will Grant Dawson win in Round 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Grant Dawson win in Round 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Grant Dawson defeats Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

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Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

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50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/pm_rWW" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)"></iframe>

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UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

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Fight to Go the Distance?

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Events (1)

UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

Markets (19)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will Grant Dawson win in Round 1?

Will Grant Dawson win in Round 1?

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Fight to Go the Distance?

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UFC 333: Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight be won by decision?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 2?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will Grant Dawson win in Round 1?

Will Grant Dawson win in Round 1?

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Discussion

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