Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a low 32% probability to the United States winning the third most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. This price suggests traders view a U.S. bronze-tier finish in the gold medal count as unlikely, though not impossible. The market is thinly traded with only about $1,000 in volume spread across 12 country-specific contracts, indicating low confidence and high volatility in these early odds. Other leading contenders for the third position are not yet clearly defined by the market, but historical powerhouses like Norway (typically competing for first) and Germany are likely factors in suppressing the U.S. odds.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The primary factor is the United States' inconsistent performance in recent Winter Games. While a perennial powerhouse in the Summer Olympics, the U.S. finished fifth in the gold medal count at both the 2022 Beijing and 2018 PyeongChang Games. Its strengths are concentrated in specific disciplines like freestyle skiing, snowboarding, and figure skating, which may not provide the breadth needed to reliably secure a top-three gold medal position against more diversified winter sports nations.

Secondly, the dominance of Norway and Germany creates a high barrier. Norway has topped the gold medal table at the last three Winter Olympics, and Germany consistently ranks within the top three. The market is essentially pricing in the expectation that these two nations will occupy the first and second positions, making the competition for third highly competitive among a second tier that includes Canada, the Netherlands, Austria, and the United States.

What Could Change These Odds

The odds will become more defined as the Games approach in February 2026 and qualification events conclude. Key catalysts will be the 2024-2025 World Cup seasons across major sports, which will reveal national team strengths and emerging athletes. A specific risk to the current low probability for the U.S. would be a dominant performance in its core sports, particularly in new Olympic events like ski mountaineering, where American athletes could potentially overperform expectations.

Conversely, if U.S. stars in marquee events like alpine skiing or speed skating underperform in pre-Olympic competitions, the probability could fall further. The market currently reflects historical precedent, but it remains highly sensitive to any showing of sustained American dominance in World Championships during the 2025 season.