Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:27 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

US 7Y Treasury yield at 9:00am ET?

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US 7Y Treasury yield at 9:00am ET?

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Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

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Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	99%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	87%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	72%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	51%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	51%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	50%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	50%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	50%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	50%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	48%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	25%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	13%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above X at Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US 7Y Treasury yield at 9:00am ET?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET

If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above X at Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.02% at Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

US 7Y Treasury yield at 9:00am ET?

Volume$0.00

Markets22

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KALSHI

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.03% at Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

KALSHI

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.0¢No 13.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.06% at Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

KALSHI

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.07% at Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

KALSHI

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.04% at Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

KALSHI

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 7-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.02% at Oct 13, 2026 at 9:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/pvzXly" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US 7Y Treasury yield at 9:00am ET?"></iframe>

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US 7Y Treasury yield at 9:00am ET?

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Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

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Events (1)

US 7Y Treasury yield at 9:00am ET?

Markets (22)

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

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Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

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US 7Y Treasury yield at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 13 at 9:00am ET?

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