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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Name: How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.54M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

Vol

$6.54M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.54M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.54M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?	Poly	35%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	Poly	32%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Poly	13%
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?	Poly	8%
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$6.54M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza S

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.

Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza S

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consula"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.42M
* **Total Liquidity:** $385.5K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 16.64)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.15M
  DATA: [Yes: 13.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $520.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $64.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $502.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $227.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $145.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $630.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $390.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $103.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.91M
  DATA: [Yes: 35.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $605.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $125.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $37.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics