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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a 100% probability that Timothée Chalamet will receive a Best Actor nomination at the 98th Academy Awards, based on the leading contract trading at maximum value. This unanimous market consensus indicates traders view the nomination as virtually certain. Across the broader category of 44 markets tracking potential 2026 Best Actor nominees, total volume has reached $3.5 million, demonstrating high liquidity and significant trader interest in these Oscar forecasts.
The absolute certainty priced in for Chalamet is primarily driven by his starring role in the upcoming film A Complete Unknown, where he portrays music icon Bob Dylan. Directed by James Mangold, the biopic is a major awards season contender, and transformative lead performances in prestigious musical biopics have a strong historical nomination record. Secondly, Chalamet is considered overdue for a Best Actor nomination after a previous Supporting Actor nod, with the market anticipating a narrative favoring his lead actor breakthrough. Third, early industry reporting and festival buzz have positioned this project as a frontrunner, with traders acting on this insider-leaning sentiment well before the official nominations announcement.
Given the 100% price, the only factor that could change these odds is an unforeseen shock, such as the film's release being delayed past the 2025 eligibility window or a significant critical and audience backlash upon its release later this year. The market resolves on January 22, 2026, following the nominations announcement. A major shift would require the film to underperform so severely that it falls out of awards contention entirely, a scenario the current pricing deems impossible.
This event is traded on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with a notable 3.9% price spread. The "Yes" contract is priced higher on Polymarket, reflecting platform-specific liquidity and trader demographics. This spread presents a narrow arbitrage opportunity for sophisticated traders to buy on Kalshi and sell on Polymarket, locking in a small risk-free profit if executed simultaneously. The difference likely stems from varying trader confidence levels and capital flow between the crypto-based Polymarket and the regulated Kalshi platform.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific film, referred to as 'X' in the market description, will receive a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards, scheduled for 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the nomination is officially announced, which is expected to occur in January 2026. The Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay honors screenwriters who have adapted their work from previously published or produced material, such as novels, plays, or other films. It is one of the most prestigious writing awards in the entertainment industry, often seen as a key indicator of a film's overall critical and artistic success. The nomination process involves voting by the Writers Branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which consists of professional screenwriters. Interest in this market stems from the competitive nature of the awards season, where early buzz, festival premieres, and critical reception throughout 2025 will shape the contenders. Analysts and enthusiasts track potential adaptations in development, the reputations of involved writers and directors, and historical voting patterns to gauge a film's chances. The outcome has implications for a film's box office performance, talent careers, and studio prestige during the awards campaign cycle.
The Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay was first presented at the 3rd Academy Awards in 1930, though it was originally called 'Best Writing, Adaptation'. The category has undergone several name changes, settling on its current title in 2002. It has consistently recognized films adapted from a wide array of sources, from classic literature to contemporary non-fiction. A significant historical precedent is that winning this award often correlates with a Best Picture win. Since 2000, 11 Best Picture winners have also won Best Adapted Screenplay, including 'No Country for Old Men' (2007), '12 Years a Slave' (2013), and 'Nomadland' (2020). This underscores the category's importance as a bellwether for overall Academy approval. The nomination process itself has evolved. Until 2020, the Academy used a preferential system to select a fixed number of nominees, typically five. However, following a 2020 rule change designed to increase diversity, the number of nominees in the screenplay categories can now vary between five and ten, depending on a complex calculation of vote thresholds. This change has made the nomination landscape slightly less predictable, as more films can theoretically secure a spot if they achieve a certain percentage of first-place votes from the Writers Branch.
A nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay carries significant economic and cultural weight. For the film 'X', a nomination can trigger a substantial box office boost, often referred to as the 'Oscar bump', as renewed marketing and public interest drive audiences to theaters or streaming platforms. It also enhances the long-term revenue potential through increased home video sales, television licensing, and streaming value. For the individuals involved, a nomination can catapult a screenwriter's career, leading to higher pay, more desirable projects, and greater creative control. It validates the challenging art of adaptation, bringing renewed attention to the original source material and often significantly increasing its sales. On a broader industry level, the nominees in this category reflect and influence cultural conversations. The stories deemed worthy of adaptation and recognition signal the types of narratives the film industry values in a given year, whether they are historical epics, social justice dramas, or innovative genre pieces. The diversity (or lack thereof) of the nominated writers and source material is closely scrutinized, making the category a barometer for progress in Hollywood representation. The outcomes influence studio greenlighting decisions for future adaptations, shaping the cinematic landscape for years to come.
As of late 2024, the landscape for the 98th Academy Awards' Best Adapted Screenplay category is in its earliest formative stage. No films for the 2025 eligibility year have been released, and most contenders are in various stages of production, post-production, or are being kept under wraps by studios. Industry speculation is based on announced projects known to be adaptations, the attached high-profile writers and directors, and scheduled release dates in the latter half of 2025. Trade publications have begun publishing very early speculative lists of potential contenders based on this information. The true shaping of the race will begin in earnest in the first half of 2025, with premieres at the Cannes Film Festival in May serving as a potential launching pad for the first major contenders.
The Best Adapted Screenplay award is for scripts based on previously existing source material, such as books, plays, articles, or other films. The Best Original Screenplay award is for scripts that are not based on previously published material and are considered wholly original to the screenwriter. The same Writers Branch votes on both categories.
While the exact date is set by the Academy closer to the event, based on recent years, the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards are expected to be announced in mid to late January 2026. The official announcement is typically made in a live presentation very early in the morning, Pacific Time.
Only active members of the Writers Branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are eligible to vote to determine the nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay. The entire Academy membership then votes from among the nominees to select the winner.
Yes, it is very common. In fact, it is rare for a film to win Best Picture without at least being nominated for its screenplay. The two categories are closely linked, as a strong script is considered foundational to a successful film.
Major precursors include the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTA Awards. While the voting bodies differ, winning or being nominated for these awards builds momentum and indicates strong industry support heading into the Oscars.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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15 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (One Battle After Another) | Kalshi | 100% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Hamnet) | Kalshi | 99% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Bugonia) | Kalshi | 95% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Frankenstein) | Kalshi | 85% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Train Dreams) | Kalshi | 75% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (No Other Choice) | Kalshi | 27% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Wake Up Dead Man) | Kalshi | 26% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Is This Thing On?) | Kalshi | 2% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Wicked: For Good) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Nuremberg) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Nouvelle Vague) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (The Life of Chuck) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Hedda) | Kalshi | 1% |
2026 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? (Ballad of a Small Player) | Kalshi | 1% |
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