North Carolina Senate margin of victory
PM $139.6K · K 1.19M contracts
2
48
North Carolina Senate margin of victory
PM $139.6K · K 1.19M contracts
2
48
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, Cooper 18%+ is priced at 99.4% on Polymarket and 99.4% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper 18%+Same question, fine print differs | 99.4% | 99.4% | 0.1 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $139.6K · K 1.19M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
48
Saved contracts
1
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On November 3, 2026 If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T15:00:06.203Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks about the margin of victory for the Democratic Party in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina [1]. Each contract resolves Yes if the Democratic margin meets its stated threshold. The margin is "the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses" [1]. Thresholds include their lower bound, no rounding is applied, and a tie yields a margin of 0 [1]. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1]. The excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied, so readers should check contract dates against the rules text.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 15:00 UTC on November 1, 2026, and the record was retrieved at 16:23 UTC the same day [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. For example, the "at least 1 percentage points" contract shows a Yes price of 0.966, while the "at least 12 percentage points" contract shows 0.66 [1]. The included thresholds generally decline as the required margin rises. The sequence is not perfectly smooth, however. The "at least 5 percentage points" contract is 0.895, the "at least 6 percentage points" contract is 0.9005, and the "at least 7 percentage points" contract is 0.8965 [1]. Differences of that size should not be read as meaningful.
The sample is partial. The saved event contains 21 markets, and 12 are included. Selection was based on finite Yes price, ordered descending, then volume [1]. The nine omitted markets are not shown, so their prices cannot be inferred from the included set. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The contract data lists an end date of November 3, 2027, while the rules refer to an election on November 3, 2026 [1]. The evidence does not explain this difference, so it should be checked against the provider before relying on any date. The only evidence is this single snapshot from one platform, so no comparison with other platforms or later prices is possible. The evidence also does not explain why prices sit at their observed levels.
References
- Kalshi: North Carolina Senate margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T15:00:06.203Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The North Carolina Senate margin of victory market is linked to the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina, which is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state [2]. Instead of asking who wins, the contract asks by how many percentage points the Democratic Party wins. The provider event is organized into threshold markets, each asking whether the margin will reach a stated number of points [1]. The contract rules say that if the Democratic Party wins by X percentage points or more, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The margin is calculated as the Democratic vote percentage minus the percentage received by the candidate, party, or option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if Democrats win. If Democrats lose, the margin is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first and is recorded as negative. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied. Votes for the Democratic Party listed under multiple labels are summed. In an uncontested race, the margin is 100 percentage points, or the total number of votes cast for raw-vote contracts [1]. The rules also state that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The saved snapshot was observed at 15:00 UTC on November 1, 2026, and retrieved at 16:23 UTC the same day. It reflects a partial sample of 12 threshold markets out of 21 in the saved provider event. Markets in that sample were ordered by Yes price, and each included market retains its highest valid ranking price. At that observation, the Yes price for the at-least-1-point threshold was 0.966, and the Yes price for the at-least-12-point threshold was 0.66 [1]. These figures are snapshots at the time of observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
Historical Context
The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, alongside the presidential election, other Senate races, House elections, and various state and local contests. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently that year [3]. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and former Democratic state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries [3]. This is historical background only and does not describe the 2026 race's current status.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the Democratic Party's winning margin, or the size of its loss, in the North Carolina Senate election, rather than the winner alone [1]. Because the rules define margin using the runner-up or first-place finisher and use inclusive lower bounds without rounding, the exact threshold boundaries determine resolution [1]. The saved market data lists an end date of November 3, 2027, while the contract rules refer to the November 3, 2026 election and state that the market closes early if certified results are published [1][2]. The excerpt does not explain the listed end date, and a date in contract rules should not be read as an announced event date. Current outcomes of the election are not part of this evidence.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the North Carolina Senate margin of victory contract measure?
It measures the Democratic Party's vote percentage minus the percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind it if Democrats win, or the first-place finisher if they lose [1]. Each threshold market asks whether that margin reaches a specified number of percentage points [1].
How is a tie treated?
If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0 [1].
How are margin ranges and rounding handled?
Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin, so a margin of exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range rather than the 5-6% range [1].
What happens in an uncontested race?
If the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes [1].
When could the market close early?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1].
Does the price shown mean the market's probability of an outcome?
The price is a snapshot from the observation time in the saved data, and the sample includes only 12 of 21 threshold markets in the provider event [1]. The available evidence does not establish a verified probability or an executable quote.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
1
Largest saved gap: 0.1 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
