Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?

Total Volume

$597.50

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When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?

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$597.50

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

markets · $597.50

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $597.50

100%

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3 markets tracked

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	12%
Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	9%
Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

12%

Top Probability

$597.50

Volume

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About This Event

Federal authority to initiate an AI shutdown If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabling of an operating AI model or system to address safety or security risks or loss of control. The government may act directly or compel a developer, operator, or service provid

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Federal authority to initiate an AI shutdown

If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabling of an operating AI model or system to address safety or security risks or loss of control. The government may act directly or compel a developer, operator, or service provid

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabl"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $598
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2027): Vol $598
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?

Volume$597.50

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabl

KALSHI

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027?

If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabl

KALSHI

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027?

If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabl

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When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?

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Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?

Markets (3)

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch before Jan 1, 2027?

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