Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform4 EventsWorld

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

Name: Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
End: 2026-09-07T03:59:00.000Z

Reported volume

PM $135.9K · K 4.6K contracts

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Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

Vol

PM $135.9K · K 4.6K contracts

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Polymarket Kalshi

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polymarket

$135.9K

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

4.6K contracts

Reported lifetime volume

Reviewed equivalent pairs

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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jan 1, 2030?

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Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff

Single-Platform Markets(17)

Rules & Resolution

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Saved matching review

Related contracts: 3 pairs

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Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "AfD in a German state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-09-21T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

The saved review identifies different resolution rules.

The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "AfD in a German state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "AfD in a German state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-09-07T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $135.9K · K 4.6K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $135.9K · K 4.6K contracts
Coverage: 21 of 21 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jan 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXAFDSTATEGOV-27; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxafdstategov-27
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 4.6K contracts
Outcome Yes: 45.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 55.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.

The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle
A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count
An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position

Contract: Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3747946; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-afd-be-in-the-next-berlin-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 21, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.3K
Outcome Yes: 2.4%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.6%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based o

Contract: Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3748222; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-afd-be-part-of-a-german-state-government-in-2026
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $53.8K
Outcome Yes: 47.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 52.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is part of the state government (Landesregierung) of any of Germany's 16 federal states at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A party is considered part of a state government if it provides at least one Minister in that state's government, including the Minister-President. In the city-states of Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen, a party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate.

A state government is considered formed when the state parliament elects the Minister-President (or, in the city-states, the Governing Mayor, First Mayor or President of the Senate) and that government has formally taken office. Coalition agreements, ministerial nominations, or announced coalition negotiations will not qualify on their own.

Parties that merely support a state government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, toleration agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister or Senator post will n

Contract: Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3748038; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-afd-be-in-the-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 7, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $18.0K
Outcome Yes: 58.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 41.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will reso

Contract: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jan 1, 2030?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXAFDSTATEGOV-27-30JAN01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxafdstategov-27
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 8, 2030, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.

The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle
A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count
An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position

Contract: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jan 1, 2029?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXAFDSTATEGOV-27-29JAN01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxafdstategov-27
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 8, 2029, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.

The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle
A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count
An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position

Contract: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jan 1, 2028?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXAFDSTATEGOV-27-28JAN01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxafdstategov-27
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Jan 8, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 78.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 21.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.

The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle
A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count
An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position

Contract: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jul 1, 2027?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXAFDSTATEGOV-27-27JUL01; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxafdstategov-27
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Jul 8, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 65.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 34.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.

The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle
A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count
An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position

Contract: Will CDU be in the next Berlin state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3747945; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-cdu-be-in-the-next-berlin-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 21, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.3K
Outcome Yes: 17.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 83.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based o

Contract: Will Grüne be in the next Berlin state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3747947; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-grune-be-in-the-next-berlin-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 21, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.1K
Outcome Yes: 51.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 49.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based o

Contract: Will SPD be in the next Berlin state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3747948; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-spd-be-in-the-next-berlin-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 21, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $6.0K
Outcome Yes: 52.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 47.3%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based o

Contract: Will FDP be in the next Berlin state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3747949; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-fdp-be-in-the-next-berlin-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 21, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $445.61
Outcome Yes: 2.9%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based o

Contract: Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3747950; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-linke-be-in-the-next-berlin-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 21, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.9K
Outcome Yes: 53.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 46.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based o

Contract: Will FW be in the next Berlin state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3747951; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-fw-be-in-the-next-berlin-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 21, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.1K
Outcome Yes: 2.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based o

Contract: Will BSW be in the next Berlin state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3747952; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-bsw-be-in-the-next-berlin-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 21, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $1.3K
Outcome Yes: 1.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 98.9%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based o

Contract: Will CDU be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3748037; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-cdu-be-in-the-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 7, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $5.6K
Outcome Yes: 9.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will reso

Contract: Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3748039; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-spd-be-in-the-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 7, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $13.8K
Outcome Yes: 8.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 91.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will reso

Contract: Will Grüne be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3748040; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-grune-be-in-the-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 7, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $3.8K
Outcome Yes: 26.2%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 73.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will reso

Contract: Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3748041; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-linke-be-in-the-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 7, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $11.0K
Outcome Yes: 5.1%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will reso

Contract: Will FDP be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3748042; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-fdp-be-in-the-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 7, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $2.3K
Outcome Yes: 3.3%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.8%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will reso

Contract: Will BSW be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-3748043; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/will-bsw-be-in-the-next-sachsen-anhalt-state-government
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Sep 7, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $4.9K
Outcome Yes: 43.6%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 56.4%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules excerpt (truncated): Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will reso

Saved cross-platform review:
polymarket-3747946 / kalshi-KXAFDSTATEGOV-27: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government?"; listed deadline 2026-09-21T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 14, 2026, 6:04 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "AfD in a German state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-09-21T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3748038 / kalshi-KXAFDSTATEGOV-27: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will AfD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?"; listed deadline 2026-09-07T03:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 14, 2026, 6:04 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "AfD in a German state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2026-09-07T03:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.
polymarket-3748222 / kalshi-KXAFDSTATEGOV-27: Related contracts. The automated review classified this pair as related and did not establish contract equivalence. Kalshi: "Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government before Jan 1, 2027?"; listed deadline 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z (UTC). Polymarket: "Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?"; listed deadline 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z (UTC). Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Price difference withheld: equivalence is not currently established.
Review date: Oct 14, 2026, 6:04 PM UTC
Review caveat: This is an automated contract review, not a guarantee of identical settlement or executable prices. Read both providers' full rules before relying on a comparison.
Review caveat: Automated review classifications: 0 equivalent, 1 related, 0 incompatible market pairs. A subset of paired outcomes does not establish equivalence of the whole event. Kalshi event: "AfD in a German state government?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-08T15:00:00.000Z. Polymarket event: "Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?". Listed deadlines for assessed markets (UTC): 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. Automated review flags: differing rules reported; differing resolution sources reported.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution rules.
Review caveat: The saved review identifies different resolution sources.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

AfD in a German state government?

Before Jan 1, 2030 If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government. The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, X whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle X caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position does NOT count X coalition agreement that has been signed but under which no government has yet taken office does NOT count This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Volume$4.59K

Markets5

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