This prediction market asks whether any justice of Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) will be permanently removed through impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026. The STF is the highest judicial body in Brazil, and its justices are appointed for life, with mandatory retirement at age 75. Removal can only occur through impeachment, which is a political process initiated by the Chamber of Deputies and judged by the Senate, or through a criminal conviction for a crime of responsibility. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if a justice is removed via these specific mechanisms, not through voluntary resignation, retirement, or death. The topic has gained traction because of the highly charged political climate in Brazil, where the STF has been at the center of numerous controversies, including investigations into former President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies. Critics, including Bolsonaro and his supporters, have accused the court of overreach and have called for the impeachment of some justices, particularly Alexandre de Moraes, who has led several high-profile investigations. At the same time, the court has faced scrutiny from both ends of the political spectrum, with some arguing that it has become too powerful and others defending its role as a check on executive and legislative excesses. Recent developments have intensified these tensions. In 2023 and 2024, the STF ruled on several politically sensitive issues, including the criminal liability of former President Bolsonaro for spreading election misinformation, and the suspension of the X platform (formerly Twitter) after a dispute with Justice Moraes. These rulings have fueled calls for impeachment from Bolsonaro's allies, who argue that the court is acting beyond its constitutional authority. However, no formal impeachment proceedings have been initiated against any justice, and the political and legal hurdles to removal are high. Interest in this market reflects broader questions about judicial independence, political accountability, and the stability of Brazil's democratic institutions. Observers are watching whether the STF will continue to assert its authority, and whether the political backlash will lead to any concrete attempts to remove justices. The outcome of this market will have significant implications for the balance of power in Brazil, the credibility of its judicial system, and the future of its democratic governance.

Historical Context

The Brazilian Constitution of 1988 established the STF as the guardian of the constitution, with justices appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. Justices serve for life until mandatory retirement at 75, a rule added by a constitutional amendment in 2015. Impeachment of a justice is possible but has never occurred in Brazil's history. The process requires a request from a citizen or entity, acceptance by the Chamber of Deputies, and a trial by the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is needed for conviction. This high threshold makes removal difficult, and no justice has ever been removed this way. Historically, the STF has faced periods of tension with other branches of government, but impeachment threats have been rare. During the military dictatorship (1964-1985), the court was often subservient to the regime, and justices were sometimes forced to retire. In the democratic era, the court has asserted its independence, notably in the 'Mensalão' corruption trial in 2012-2013, which convicted several politicians. More recently, the court has been involved in controversial rulings on issues like same-sex marriage, affirmative action, and the investigation of corruption in the 'Lava Jato' operation. The current wave of impeachment calls began during Bolsonaro's presidency, when the court repeatedly blocked his administration's policies and investigated his allies. In 2019, Bolsonaro called for the impeachment of Justice Moraes after the court authorized an investigation into fake news attacks. The tension escalated in 2021 when Bolsonaro held an Independence Day rally where he threatened the court. In 2022, the court ordered Bolsonaro to testify in an investigation into his claims of election fraud. After Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election, his supporters attacked government buildings in Brasília on January 8, 2023, leading to a STF-led investigation that has targeted Bolsonaro and his allies, further fueling impeachment calls.

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