GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

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Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

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33 markets tracked

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(33)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	31%
Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	29%
Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	10%
Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	4%
Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Wes Moore be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Mark Kelly be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Cory Booker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	3%
Will Stephen A. Smith be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Raphael Warnock be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Ruben Gallego be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Roy Cooper be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Michelle Obama be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Mitch Landrieu be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Mark Cuban be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will James Talarico be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Jon Stewart be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Jared Polis be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Jasmine Crockett be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Elizabeth Warren be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Elissa Slotkin be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Chris Murphy be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Beto O'Rourke be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Andrew Yang be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Amy Klobuchar be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Gina Raimondo be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%
Will Graham Platner be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

Before Nov 1, 2028 If X is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form, Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form, AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Nov 1, 2028

If X is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. X declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form, Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form, AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Wes Moore is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form ("

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Wes Moore be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Stephen A. Smith be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Raphael Warnock be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ruben Gallego be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Roy Cooper be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Michelle Obama be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Mitch Landrieu be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Mark Kelly be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Mark Cuban be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will James Talarico be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Jon Stewart be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Jared Polis be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Jasmine Crockett be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Gina Raimondo be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Graham Platner be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Elizabeth Warren be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Elissa Slotkin be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Chris Murphy be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Cory Booker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Beto O'Rourke be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Andrew Yang be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Amy Klobuchar be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

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KALSHI

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.0¢No 69.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy for

KALSHI

Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

If Rahm Emanuel is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy for

KALSHI

Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

If Kamala Harris is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy fo

KALSHI

Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

If Jon Ossoff is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form

KALSHI

Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

If Ro Khanna is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/qGomaS" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)"></iframe>

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Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

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Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

Markets (33)

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Will Ro Khanna be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

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