$25.55K
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$25.55K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for January 2026, scheduled to be released on February 6, 2026, 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for December is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employ
Prediction markets are currently assigning low probabilities to most job gain ranges for the January 2026 nonfarm payroll report. The leading contract on Polymarket, asking if the US will add between 50,000 and 75,000 jobs, is trading at just 24%. This indicates the market sees a one-in-four chance of job growth falling within that low band, viewing it as a possible but not favored outcome. The remaining probability is thinly distributed across other brackets, from under 25,000 jobs to over 300,000, with no single range commanding a majority. The total market volume of $26,000 across seven contracts reflects thin liquidity, suggesting this is a speculative, forward-looking view rather than a high-conviction consensus.
The low probability assigned to any strong jobs number is primarily driven by the macroeconomic backdrop expected for early 2026. Markets are likely pricing in a matured economic cycle where the Federal Reserve's prolonged restrictive monetary policy, aimed at curbing inflation, has finally led to a significant cooling in the labor market. Historical patterns show that after periods of aggressive rate hikes, job growth often decelerates markedly with a lag of 12-18 months. Secondly, leading indicators available in late January 2026, such as weekly jobless claims, PMI employment components, and company hiring freezes, are probably signaling weakness. The market is effectively betting that the economy will be in a fragile state, with businesses hesitant to hire amid potential recessionary fears.
The odds could shift dramatically with the release of key antecedent data in the coming weeks. The JOLTS report for December 2025 (due in late January) and the weekly initial jobless claims will provide critical signals. A surprisingly strong JOLTS number showing resilient job openings could cause money to flow into contracts for higher job gains, like the 150,000 to 200,000 range. Conversely, a spike in jobless claims would solidify bets on a very weak report. The consensus view is also highly sensitive to Federal Reserve commentary. Any signal from the late-January FOMC meeting suggesting a potential pivot to rate cuts to support the economy could lead markets to anticipate a weaker jobs number, further depressing odds for high-growth brackets. The thin liquidity means prices are volatile and can move significantly on single data points.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The January 2026 nonfarm payroll employment report, officially titled the 'Employment Situation Summary,' is a monthly economic indicator published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This specific report, scheduled for release on February 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, will provide the first comprehensive snapshot of U.S. job growth for the new year. It measures the net change in payroll employment across all nonfarm business establishments and government agencies, excluding agricultural workers, private household employees, and nonprofit organization employees. The figure is a critical barometer of economic health, influencing financial markets, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and political discourse. Market participants, economists, and policymakers closely monitor this data point as it offers timely evidence of labor market strength or weakness, consumer spending potential, and overall economic momentum. The January report holds particular significance as it follows the holiday hiring season and can signal whether seasonal adjustments accurately reflect underlying employment trends. Analysts will scrutinize the number against consensus forecasts, which are typically aggregated from surveys of economists by financial news organizations in the days preceding the release. The resolution of this prediction market depends entirely on the headline seasonally adjusted figure from the BLS report, with specific rules for edge cases, such as tie-breaking between defined brackets or data release delays.
The systematic measurement of U.S. employment began in its modern form with the establishment of the Current Employment Statistics program in 1915. The monthly Employment Situation report itself was formally launched in 1940, providing a consistent time series that economists still reference today. Historically, the report has been subject to significant revisions; for instance, initial estimates are revised twice in subsequent months, and annual benchmark revisions can adjust figures by hundreds of thousands of jobs. The Great Recession of 2007-2009 provides critical context, as the U.S. economy shed over 8.7 million jobs, with monthly losses peaking at nearly 800,000 in January 2009. The recovery was long, taking over six years to regain that lost employment. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented volatility. In April 2020, nonfarm payrolls plummeted by 20.5 million, the worst single-month decline on record, followed by a V-shaped but uneven recovery. The post-pandemic period saw exceptionally strong job growth, with 2021 and 2022 averaging over 400,000 jobs added per month, fueling inflation concerns and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. By 2024, monthly gains had moderated to a more sustainable pace, typically between 150,000 and 250,000, which is closer to the pre-pandemic trend. The January report often exhibits volatility due to difficult seasonal adjustments for post-holiday layoffs and harsh winter weather, making it one of the most frequently revised reports of the year.
The number of jobs added in January 2026 is a leading indicator for the entire U.S. economy. It directly influences the financial well-being of millions of households, dictating wage growth, consumer confidence, and spending power. Strong job growth typically supports retail sales, housing demand, and business investment, creating a virtuous cycle of economic expansion. Conversely, weak job growth can signal an impending slowdown or recession, prompting businesses to cut costs and consumers to pull back. Politically, the employment figure is a potent metric for the sitting administration, which will claim credit for a strong labor market or face criticism for a weak one. It shapes legislative agendas and public policy debates around issues like immigration, workforce training, and industrial policy. For the Federal Reserve, the data is a dual mandate input, critical for balancing maximum employment with price stability. A hot jobs number could keep interest rates higher for longer, increasing borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and business credit. This has global ramifications, as U.S. monetary policy affects capital flows and exchange rates worldwide. Ultimately, the January jobs number is more than a statistic, it is a real-time assessment of economic opportunity and stability for the nation.
As of late 2024 and early 2025, the U.S. labor market has shown remarkable resilience despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. Job growth has moderated from the torrid pace of 2021-2022 but remains solid, consistently adding jobs each month and keeping the unemployment rate near historic lows below 4.0%. However, signs of a gradual cooling are present, including slower wage growth and a slight uptick in initial jobless claims. The focus for the January 2026 report will be whether this moderation continues smoothly toward a sustainable pace or accelerates into a more pronounced slowdown. Leading indicators to watch in late 2025 will include job openings data from the JOLTS report, weekly unemployment insurance claims, and business surveys like the ISM Manufacturing and Services Employment indexes.
The establishment survey (CES) of businesses produces the headline nonfarm payrolls number. The separate household survey (CPS) calculates the unemployment rate and labor force participation. They use different methodologies and samples, so they can sometimes tell diverging stories about the same month's labor market conditions.
The initial estimate is based on a survey sample, with a response rate of about 60-70%. As more businesses submit their data late, the BLS incorporates them into revised estimates for the prior two months. Additionally, an annual benchmark revision aligns the survey totals with comprehensive unemployment insurance tax records.
Severe winter weather can temporarily suppress employment in construction, leisure, and hospitality sectors. The BLS uses seasonal adjustment models to account for typical January patterns, but unusually harsh or mild weather can cause the adjusted number to be volatile and less reliable as an indicator of underlying economic trend.
Financial news organizations survey economists to create a consensus forecast. If the actual BLS number is higher than this consensus, it is considered a 'beat,' which often boosts stock markets on hopes for economic strength. A 'miss' can trigger sell-offs on fears of weakness. The size of the deviation matters greatly.
The BLS uses statistical models to remove predictable seasonal patterns, like holiday retail hiring in December and layoffs in January. This allows for month-to-month comparison of the underlying trend. The adjustment factors are updated annually, and the January adjustment is particularly large and complex.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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7 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 24% |
| Poly | 22% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 7% |
| Poly | 7% |
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