
$11.08K
1
8

$11.08K
1
8
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and an
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Berlin State Election Winner prediction market focuses on determining which political party will secure the greatest number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus, the state parliament of Berlin, following the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 20, 2026. This election is a critical political event for Germany's capital city-state, determining the composition of its regional government and setting policy direction on key local issues including housing, transportation, climate policy, and education. The market resolves based on the official seat count from the election, with a provision to resolve to 'Other' if voting does not occur by December 31, 2026. This creates a clear, time-bound prediction instrument for political observers. Interest in this market stems from Berlin's unique status as a city-state, its role as the national capital, and its history of complex coalition governments. The 2026 election follows the 2023 state election, which resulted in a protracted government formation process, highlighting the competitive and fragmented nature of Berlin's political landscape. Analysts and participants are watching to see if the incumbent coalition can maintain its majority or if opposition parties will gain ground, particularly on issues like the city's housing crisis and infrastructure projects.
Berlin's state politics have been characterized by coalition governments since reunification, with no single party achieving an absolute majority. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) dominated the mayor's office for 22 consecutive years from 2001 to 2023, governing in various coalitions with The Left and the Greens. This era ended with the 2023 state election, held on February 12, 2023, a rerun of the flawed 2021 election. The 2023 election produced a historic result, with the CDU winning a plurality of 28.2% of the vote, its best result in Berlin since 1999. This allowed the CDU, under Kai Wegner, to form a coalition with the SPD, marking a significant political shift. The election was also notable for the entry of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) into the political scene, although it did not cross the 5% threshold to enter parliament. Previous elections have been heavily influenced by national politics, local issues like the Berlin-Brandenburg airport debacle, and the city's rapid growth, which has strained infrastructure and housing. The 2026 election will be the first regular election following the tumultuous 2021-2023 electoral cycle.
The outcome of the Berlin state election determines the government of Germany's largest city and capital, directly impacting the lives of its 3.7 million residents. The winning party or coalition will set policy on Berlin's most pressing issues, including the acute housing shortage, the expansion and modernization of public transit, and the implementation of climate protection measures. These decisions have significant economic implications, influencing investment, construction, and energy sectors. Politically, the election is a key barometer for national party strength, particularly for the CDU and SPD, and can signal shifts in the national political mood. A change in government could alter Berlin's relationship with the federal government and other German states, especially on fiscal matters and infrastructure funding. The election also matters for democratic representation, as it shapes how Berlin addresses social inequalities, integration policies, and cultural funding in one of Europe's most diverse cities.
As of late 2024, Berlin is governed by the coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner. The government is approximately halfway through its legislative term, with major policy initiatives on housing construction and administrative reform underway. The political landscape is in a pre-campaign phase, with parties beginning to position themselves for the 2026 election. The opposition Greens and The Left are critiquing the coalition's pace on climate goals and social policy. A significant recent development is the continued presence of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in opinion polls, suggesting it could be a potential new actor in the 2026 election, potentially further fragmenting the vote.
The next parliamentary election for the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus is scheduled for September 20, 2026. This date was set following the extraordinary 2023 election, which was a rerun of the problematic 2021 vote, returning the state to a regular five-year election cycle.
The Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin is the state parliament for the city-state of Berlin. It is the central legislative body for Berlin, passing state laws, approving the budget, and electing and overseeing the Governing Mayor and the Senate (the state government).
As of 2024, Berlin is governed by a coalition between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The CDU's Kai Wegner serves as the Governing Mayor, with the SPD providing several senators in the governing Senate.
In the February 2023 state election, the CDU won 28.2% of the vote (52 seats), the SPD 18.4% (34 seats), the Greens 18.4% (34 seats), The Left 12.2% (22 seats), and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) 9.1% (17 seats). The FDP failed to cross the 5% threshold.
Voters in Berlin state elections cast two votes. The first vote (Erststimme) elects a direct candidate from their constituency. The second vote (Zweitstimme) is for a party list, and it determines the overall proportional distribution of the 159 seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus, subject to the 5% threshold.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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