Events
GroupKALSHI
Cal Poly at Hawai'i
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
0
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
2
markets · $920.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $920.00
100%
Kalshi leads
2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Cal Poly at Hawai'i Winner? (Hawai'i) | Kalshi | 88% |
Cal Poly at Hawai'i Winner? (Cal Poly) | Kalshi | 12% |
$920.00
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
CP at HAW (Jan 16) If X wins the Cal Poly at Hawai'i women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the team who wins the Cal Poly at Hawai'i women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Jan 16, 2026. If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished, within two weeks. If the cancelled game is not played or is rescheduled further t
Prediction markets are pricing in a dominant 88% probability that the Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine will defeat the Cal Poly Mustangs in their scheduled women's college basketball game. This price, trading at 88 cents for a "Yes" outcome on Hawai'i winning, indicates the market views a home victory as very likely. With only 12 cents on a Cal Poly win, the implied odds suggest a significant mismatch is anticipated.
Two primary factors are creating this lopsided market pricing. First, the historical and recent competitive gap between the programs is substantial. Hawai'i entered the 2024-25 season as a consistent mid-tier team in the Big West Conference, while Cal Poly has struggled, finishing the previous season with a 3-27 overall record and near the very bottom of the conference standings. Second, the game is scheduled to be played at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, giving Hawai'i a significant home-court advantage, a factor often amplified in conference play. The thin trading volume suggests this price is based more on these fundamental expectations than on heavy speculative action.
The primary catalyst for a shift in these odds would be significant player availability news closer to the 2026 date, such as a major injury to a key Hawai'i starter or a transformative transfer joining Cal Poly's roster. As a conference game scheduled for January, preseason results and non-conference performance in the 2025-26 season will be critical monitoring points. If Cal Poly shows dramatic improvement or Hawai'i regresses in the months leading up to this matchup, the current 88% confidence could erode. The market's conditional rules for postponements also mean any schedule disruption could temporarily freeze or alter trading sentiment.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a women's college basketball game between California Polytechnic State University (Cal Poly) and the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa (Hawai'i), originally scheduled for January 16, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Cal Poly wins the contest. The game is part of the Big West Conference regular season schedule, where both teams compete. The market includes specific provisions for scheduling changes, remaining open and resolving based on a rescheduled game if the original date is postponed, provided it occurs within two weeks. If the game is canceled or rescheduled beyond that window, the market resolution follows predetermined rules tied to the original intent. This creates a financial instrument that allows participants to speculate on the game's result while accounting for the logistical realities of collegiate athletics. Interest stems from the competitive rivalry within the Big West, the distinct geographical and cultural contrast between the California and Hawai'i programs, and the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes. Bettors and analysts follow team performance, player health, and coaching strategies in the lead-up to such games, with this market offering a quantified expression of those expectations. The inclusion of contingency rules for postponements adds a layer of complexity, making it a case study in how prediction markets handle uncertainty in scheduled events.
The Cal Poly and Hawai'i women's basketball programs have been conference rivals since Hawai'i joined the Big West Conference for the 2012-2013 season. This created an annual home-and-away series, often featuring competitive games that impact conference tournament seeding. Historically, Hawai'i has held a competitive advantage in the series. For example, in the 2023-2024 season, Hawai'i defeated Cal Poly in both of their matchups, winning 67-52 in San Luis Obispo on January 4, 2024, and 73-58 in Honolulu on February 10, 2024. The geographical distance between the campuses, separated by over 2,500 miles of Pacific Ocean, adds a unique travel challenge, particularly for the visiting team adjusting to time zones and climate. The rivalry intensified in the 2023 Big West Tournament, where Hawai'i's championship run included navigating a bracket that featured Cal Poly. These past encounters set a precedent for the competitive dynamics, travel fatigue considerations, and strategic approaches that will inform the buildup to the January 2026 meeting. The historical win-loss record and recent trends are key data points for analysts evaluating the prediction market.
Beyond the immediate game result, this market reflects the growing intersection of sports analytics, fan engagement, and financial speculation. It serves as a microcosm of how prediction markets can model real-world events with contingent variables, such as weather delays or health protocols leading to postponements. For the universities, the outcome influences conference standings, postseason eligibility, and program prestige, which can affect recruiting, alumni donations, and institutional visibility. For the broader ecosystem, markets like this contribute to the data-driven conversation around sports, offering a collective intelligence forecast that complements traditional analysis. They also present regulatory considerations, as they blur the lines between recreational forecasting and gambling, depending on jurisdiction. The market's design, with its specific clauses for rescheduling, highlights the need for precise contract language in speculative instruments tied to live events, a principle applicable to markets far beyond sports.
As of the latest available information, the game is formally scheduled for January 16, 2026, as part of the future Big West Conference slate. Both teams are in their respective 2024-2025 offseason periods, with recruiting, player development, and preseason planning underway. The specific rosters for the 2025-2026 season, which will determine the players competing in this game, are not yet finalized due to ongoing eligibility, transfers, and incoming freshmen. Market activity would typically intensify closer to the game date as more information about team form, injuries, and other factors becomes available. The contingency rules for postponement are established but dormant, awaiting any potential scheduling changes from the conference.
The market rules specify that if the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and will resolve based on the result of the rescheduled game, provided it is played within two weeks of the original January 16, 2026 date. Weather is a common cause for delays in outdoor sports but is extremely rare for indoor basketball.
Based on recent historical performance and conference standings, the University of Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine would be considered the preliminary favorite. They have consistently finished higher in the Big West and have dominated the recent head-to-head series against Cal Poly.
The official conference schedule is published on the Big West Conference website (bigwest.org). Individual team schedules are also available on the official athletic websites for Cal Poly (gopoly.com) and the University of Hawai'i (hawaiiathletics.com).
While individual games in the series have likely been played as scheduled, the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions to the 2020-2021 college basketball season. Many games were postponed or canceled, illustrating the type of unforeseen event the market's rescheduling clause is designed to address.
Broadcast details for a game in January 2026 are not yet determined. Big West Conference games are typically carried on ESPN+ or other regional sports networks. The specific broadcast partner will be announced closer to the game date by the conference or the hosting institution.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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