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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Lagos on May 1?

Name: Highest temperature in Lagos on May 1?
End: 2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$36.94K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Lagos on May 1?

Vol

$36.94K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $36.94K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $36.94K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 1?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 1?	Poly	100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 1?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 1?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C on May 1?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 38°C or higher on May 1?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$36.94K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/la

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Lagos on May 1?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/la

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $27.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.51)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 38°C or higher on May 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate