GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Name: 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
End: 2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$24.68M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Vol

$24.68M

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $23.79M

Kalshi

markets · $888.44K

Price Spread

0.9%avg

max 2.1%

Arbitrage

of 4 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $24.68M

96%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

37 markets tracked

Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(4)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?ARB	6%	4%	2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	3%	3%	0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2%	2%	0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	0%	2%	1%

Single-Platform Markets(33)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

13%

Top Probability

$24.68M

Volume

Markets

2.5%

Price Gap

About This Event

In 2026 If X wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi. This market will close and expire early after the award is announced.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, October 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi. This market will close and expire early after the award is announced.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $24.68M
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.75M
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 14.09)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (20 mkts) vs Kalshi (21 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Donald Trump)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $675.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $4.51M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Elon Musk)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $1.19M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.4% spread between platforms.

### 3. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (International Court of Justice (ICJ))
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $911.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.1% spread between platforms.

### 4. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $29.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $810.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Shehbaz Sharif)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $8.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (UNRWA)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Pope Leo XIV)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $36.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (International Criminal Court)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $351
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Committee to Protect Journalists)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $86
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Save the Children)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $600
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Yulia Navalnaya)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Sam Altman)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $58
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Dario Amodei)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $75
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Minneapolis)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $19.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs))
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $61.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Narges Mohammadi)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Francesca Albanese)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (European Union)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $437
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières))
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $21.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue)
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $516
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $819.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $296.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $856.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $1.47M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $2.05M
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $637.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $788.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $921.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $880.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $703.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $1.07M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $1.44M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $1.27M
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $1.28M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $1.19M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 10, 2026): Vol $688.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIPolitics

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Volume$888.44K

Markets21

POLYMARKETPolitics

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the

Volume$23.79M

Markets20

37 of 37

Sort:

KALSHI

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Save the Children)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHISports

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Save the Children)

If Save the Children wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorse

KALSHI

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières))

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.0¢No 87.0¢

KALSHISports

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières))

If Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive on

KALSHI

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Yulia Navalnaya)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHISports

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? (Yulia Navalnaya)

If Yulia Navalnaya wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorseme

POLYMARKET

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

CLOSING SOON

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

POLYMARKET

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

CLOSING SOON

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

1d 5h remaining

Oct 10, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

Polymarket

3¢

Kalshi

2¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/qMWLpr" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner