Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket market asks whether Bitcoin will move up or down over a five-minute window from 1:30AM to 1:35AM ET on October 20. The source states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the source says the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should not assume it tracks exchange spot prices or other Bitcoin price feeds.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:35:00Z, which is 1:35AM ET under daylight time [1]. The contract's date and time settings describe when the window closes. They do not mean any event is scheduled for that time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T06:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T06:35:59Z [1]. These are the only timing facts in the evidence. The record does not show the market's status after retrieval, and it does not confirm whether trading was still open when this summary was prepared.
The saved snapshot shows the following prices:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence contains no volume, liquidity, or trader count, so it cannot show how deep the market was or how many participants it reflected.
The sample covers this one market. The coverage record lists one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because the sample is complete for this event, nothing was omitted from the event. The snapshot does not show what a Bitcoin price has done, and it does not explain the small gap between the two prices.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not report the Bitcoin price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final outcome. It does not include any news, explanation, or historical record of how similar markets have performed. Comparing this contract with other Bitcoin markets would require checking that each has the same TWAP source, window length, and close time, because wording and listed end times differ across contracts. Differences in price between separate contracts do not by themselves show an opportunity, since the rules and timing may not match.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This Polymarket contract asks whether the Bitcoin price will finish a five-minute window higher or lower than where it started. The title, Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET, names the window [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The market's listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:35:00.000Z [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules identify as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. This matters because a Bitcoin price on one exchange, or a price shown on a general website, is not the reference used for settlement under these rules. The contract is a short-horizon directional question. Its outcomes are binary, labeled Up and Down, and the comparison is between the window's averaged price and the starting price rather than between a closing price and a fixed target [1]. Averaging over time means a brief spike near the end of the window does not by itself determine the result, because the rule uses the time-weighted average rather than a single final print [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over one five-minute window. Because the rule compares the average over the window with the price at the window's start, it asks about short-term movement in that specific data stream rather than about Bitcoin's broader price trend [1]. The prices shown for the two outcomes reflect how participants were pricing the two results at the observation time, but they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window, and Down otherwise [1].
Which price source is used?
The rules name Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title specifies October 20, 1:30AM to 1:35AM ET, and the provider record lists the end time as 2026-10-20T05:35:00.000Z [1].
Why is a time-weighted average used instead of a single price?
The rule is defined on the TWAP over the window, so the result depends on the averaged price across the window rather than on one point in time [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
PM $112.22M · K 24.56M contractsWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $109,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
PM $0
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.