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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
![]() | Poly | 63% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the CBB game between Duke Blue Devils and Stanford Cardinal on January 17 at 6:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Prediction markets currently price a Duke Blue Devils victory at 63%, implying the market assesses a clear, but not overwhelming, favorite. This probability suggests bettors see Duke as nearly two-to-one favorites, indicating a likely win while acknowledging a credible threat from Stanford. With the contract resolving in just two days, this price reflects the consensus of informed capital as tip-off approaches.
The primary driver is Duke's consistent status as a national powerhouse under Coach Jon Scheyer, featuring superior talent and athleticism, particularly in their backcourt and wing positions. Secondly, Stanford's performance in non-conference play has been inconsistent, struggling against top-tier competition, which lowers confidence in their ability to win a true road game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Finally, historical context matters. Duke rarely loses non-conference home games, creating a strong home-court advantage that the market is factoring into the price.
A significant injury report for either team, especially involving a key Duke starter, could rapidly tighten the spread. Secondly, if early game momentum strongly favors Stanford, live trading could see the "Yes" share price drop precipitously as the game unfolds. The market has priced in Duke's typical dominance, so any deviation from that script, such as Stanford controlling the tempo and rebounding, would be a direct challenge to the current consensus.
This specific game contract is trading exclusively on Polymarket. The absence of a comparable market on platforms like Kalshi means there is no direct arbitrage opportunity or cross-platform spread to analyze. All trading sentiment and price discovery for this event are concentrated within this single market, making the 63% price the sole aggregated indicator of crowd-based probability.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
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This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a men's college basketball game between the Duke Blue Devils and the Stanford Cardinal, scheduled for January 17 at 6:00 PM Eastern Time. The market allows participants to wager on which team will win this non-conference matchup, a notable intersection of two prestigious academic institutions with storied basketball programs. Duke, representing the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), and Stanford, from the Pac-12 Conference, meet in a game that blends athletic rivalry with academic prestige, often referred to as a 'brains versus brawn' or 'Ivy-plus' matchup in college sports circles. The game's outcome will influence both teams' postseason resumes, including their NET rankings and potential seeding for the NCAA Tournament, commonly known as March Madness. Interest in this specific game is heightened by its timing in mid-January, a critical period for teams to build momentum before conference play intensifies. Furthermore, the market includes specific contingency rules: if the game is postponed, the market remains open until completion, and if canceled without a makeup, it resolves as a 50-50 split, adding layers of complexity for bettors considering external factors like team health or scheduling conflicts. This contest is part of the broader 2023-2024 NCAA Division I men's basketball season, where every game carries weight for tournament selection and seeding.
The Duke and Stanford men's basketball programs have a limited but notable history, with their first meeting occurring in the 1998 NCAA Tournament. In that game, Stanford, led by coach Mike Montgomery and star guard Arthur Lee, defeated a Duke team featuring future NBA players like Elton Brand and Shane Battier in the NCAA Regional Final to advance to the Final Four. This 1998 upset remains one of the most significant games between the two, highlighting Stanford's historical capacity to compete with college basketball's elite. The most recent regular-season meeting was on December 18, 2016, at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where Duke, coached by Mike Krzyzewski, secured a 93-60 victory over a Stanford team coached by Jerod Haase in his first season. Beyond head-to-head matchups, the programs represent different archetypes in college sports. Duke, under Krzyzewski from 1980 to 2022, became a modern dynasty with five national championships, synonymous with one-and-done NBA prospects and a global brand. Stanford, while achieving consistent success in the early 2000s under Montgomery and later Trent Johnson, has not reached the same sustained peak, often balancing high academic standards with athletic competitiveness. This historical contrast between a perennial powerhouse and a prestigious academic institution seeking a return to prominence frames the contemporary rivalry.
This game matters significantly for the trajectory of both programs within the 2023-2024 season. For Duke, a loss to a Pac-12 team outside the projected NCAA Tournament field would be considered a damaging Quadrant 2 or 3 defeat, potentially harming their seeding and raising questions about their consistency under Scheyer. For Stanford, a victory over a top-tier ACC opponent would be a signature win, dramatically boosting their NET ranking and providing crucial evidence for the NCAA selection committee, potentially revitalizing their at-large bid hopes. Beyond the immediate teams, the outcome influences the perceived strength of their respective conferences, the ACC and Pac-12, in the final year of the Pac-12's current configuration. Financially, success in high-profile non-conference games can impact future scheduling, television appeal, and recruiting. For the players, especially NBA prospects like Filipowski, performance in nationally spotlighted games directly affects draft stock and NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) valuation. For fans and bettors, it is a compelling data point in assessing each team's true quality and postseason potential.
As of mid-January, both teams are navigating their conference schedules. Duke enters the game with a record shaped by its rigorous ACC slate, featuring wins and losses against ranked opponents. Key players like Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor are expected to be fully healthy and central to the game plan. Stanford comes in with a record built against Pac-12 and non-conference foes, seeking a statement win to bolster its tournament hopes. The specific point spread and betting lines for the January 17 contest will be released closer to game day, influenced by recent team performance, injury reports, and home-court advantage, which in this case favors Duke as the host at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The game is scheduled to be played at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina, the home court of the Duke Blue Devils. This gives Duke a significant home-court advantage in one of college basketball's most iconic and challenging venues for visiting teams.
The television broadcast details are typically announced a week in advance. For a high-profile non-conference game like this, it is likely to be televised on a major ESPN network (ESPN, ESPN2, or ESPNU) or possibly on the ACC Network. Viewers should check local listings closer to the January 17 date.
Yes, Stanford has beaten Duke twice in their history. Their most famous victory was in the 1998 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight, where Stanford won 86-85 to advance to the Final Four. They also won a regular-season game in 1999.
Sportsbooks will release official point spreads and moneylines closer to game day. Historically, Duke is typically a heavy favorite when playing Stanford at home, especially given Duke's higher preseason ranking and Stanford's recent tournament drought. The exact odds will depend on both teams' immediate form in January.
Based on preseason projections and historical performance, the Duke Blue Devils will almost certainly be favored to win the game. The size of the point spread will be determined by how both teams perform in the weeks leading up to the January 17 matchup.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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