Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

Name: Reserve Bank of India decision in December
End: 2026-12-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.54K

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Reserve Bank of India decision in December

Vol

$10.54K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $10.54K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.54K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Poly	72%
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?	Poly	17%
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Poly	11%
Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Poly	3%
Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

Top Probability

$10.54K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, with the decision to be announced on December 4, 2026, as listed on the official Rese

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Reserve Bank of India decision in December
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 4, 2026 (54 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, with the decision to be announced on December 4, 2026, as listed on the official Rese

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the R"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.49)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $890
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the December meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $906
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Reserve Bank of India decrease the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 4, 2026): Vol $240
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy