$370.84
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2
$370.84
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed a
Prediction markets currently price the Republican Party's chance of winning New Jersey's 5th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm election at 49%. This near-even probability indicates the market views the race as a pure toss-up, with no meaningful edge assigned to either major party. The thin trading volume, showing $0K across two markets on Polymarket, reflects the distant resolution date and low current informational liquidity. This pricing suggests traders see NJ-05 as a quintessential swing district that will be highly sensitive to the national political environment over the next 292 days.
Two primary factors are anchoring the market at this equilibrium price. First, the district's recent electoral history shows it is highly competitive. Republican Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a moderate Democrat, has held the seat since 2017 but often wins by relatively narrow margins in a district that former President Trump carried in 2016. This voting pattern makes it a perennial Republican target. Second, the uncertainty inherent in a midterm election cycle 18 months away is a major factor. The national political climate, presidential approval ratings, and the state of the economy, which are all currently unknown variables for 2026, will disproportionately decide the fate of swing seats like NJ-05. The market is essentially pricing in this fundamental uncertainty.
The odds will begin to shift meaningfully once concrete candidate and national environment factors emerge. A key catalyst will be the official candidate filings and the result of the Republican primary. If a strong, well-funded challenger emerges against the likely Democratic incumbent, Republican odds could rise. Conversely, if Rep. Gottheimer appears to solidify his moderate brand or the national environment shifts decisively toward Democrats, his party's odds would improve. Major political developments through 2025, including the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election and the ensuing congressional agenda, will provide the first significant signals. Liquidity and trading activity are expected to increase substantially as the election date approaches and polling data becomes available.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on determining which political party will win New Jersey's 5th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate declared the winner after all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by designated resolution sources. NJ-05 is a competitive district covering parts of Bergen, Passaic, and Sussex counties, including suburbs northwest of New York City. The district has shifted from reliably Republican to more competitive in recent cycles, making it a bellwether for suburban political trends nationally. The 2026 election will occur on November 4, 2026, with the outcome potentially influencing control of the House and serving as an indicator of broader political realignments in suburban America. Interest in this market stems from NJ-05's status as one of the most closely watched swing districts in the country, its role in determining House majority control, and its reflection of changing voting patterns in affluent suburban communities that have trended Democratic in recent presidential elections but remain competitive in congressional races.
New Jersey's 5th congressional district has undergone significant political transformation over recent decades. From 1985 through 2016, the district was represented by Republican Scott Garrett, a conservative who often won by comfortable margins in what was considered a safe Republican seat. This changed in 2016 when Democrat Josh Gottheimer defeated Garrett by 4.6 percentage points, capitalizing on Donald Trump's unpopularity in affluent suburban areas. Gottheimer's victory marked the first time a Democrat had won the district since 1932, representing a dramatic political realignment. In the 2018 midterms, Gottheimer solidified his hold with a 13.8 percentage point victory over John McCann, benefiting from strong anti-Trump sentiment in the suburbs. The 2020 election saw Gottheimer win by 6.8 percentage points against Frank Pallotta, a smaller margin that reflected some rebound in Republican performance. Most recently in 2022, Gottheimer won by 7.4 percentage points against Pallotta again, demonstrating his staying power even during a midterm cycle that favored Republicans nationally. This history shows NJ-05 has evolved from a Republican stronghold to a genuine swing district, with its electoral outcomes often mirroring national political trends and suburban voting patterns.
The outcome of the NJ-05 House election has significance beyond determining representation for approximately 770,000 New Jersey residents. As a suburban swing district in a politically competitive state, NJ-05 serves as a national bellwether for how affluent, educated suburban voters are aligning politically. These voters have shifted toward Democrats in recent presidential elections but remain divided in congressional races, making their preferences crucial for determining House majority control. The district's election results will provide insights into whether suburban realignment toward Democrats is permanent or whether Republicans can regain ground with alternative messaging and candidates. Economically, the representative from NJ-05 influences federal policy on taxes, infrastructure, and business regulation affecting one of the nation's wealthiest congressional districts, with a median household income exceeding $110,000. The election outcome could impact federal funding for local priorities like Gateway Tunnel improvements, flood mitigation along the Passaic River, and support for pharmaceutical and healthcare industries prominent in the district.
As of late 2024, Representative Josh Gottheimer holds the NJ-05 seat and has not announced whether he will seek reelection in 2026, though he is widely expected to run. No major Republican challengers have formally declared candidacy, though party operatives are reportedly recruiting potential candidates. The district boundaries remain unchanged from the 2022 election after New Jersey's congressional map survived legal challenges. Political observers are monitoring whether national political trends in the 2024 presidential election will create momentum for either party heading into the 2026 midterms. Fundraising reports show Gottheimer maintaining a substantial war chest for a potential 2026 campaign.
NJ-05 includes parts of Bergen County (including towns like Ridgewood and Mahwah), all of Sussex County, and parts of Passaic and Warren counties. The district covers suburbs northwest of New York City.
In 2020, Joe Biden won NJ-05 with 52.5% of the vote to Donald Trump's 46.5%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the district with 48.8% to Trump's 47.9%, marking a significant shift from previous Republican presidential advantages.
The market resolves based on when designated resolution sources conclusively call all 2026 House elections. These typically include major media organizations like the Associated Press, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News that collectively determine when election outcomes are settled.
The market resolves based on the winning candidate's identifiable party affiliation. If a candidate without Democratic or Republican affiliation wins, the market would resolve accordingly based on how the resolution sources classify that candidate's party.
New Jersey's congressional districts were last redrawn in 2022 following the 2020 census. Unless unexpected legal challenges succeed, these district boundaries will remain in effect for the 2026 election, providing continuity from the previous election cycle.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 48% |
 | Poly | 47% |
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