Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
Total Volume
$666.10
Events
1
Markets
1
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $666.10
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $666.10
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
AWS service disrupted by April 30?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 55% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
55%
Top Probability
$666.10
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Da
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give a 35% chance that Amazon Web Services will have a significant service disruption before April 30. This means traders collectively see it as somewhat unlikely, estimating roughly a 1 in 3 probability. While not the expected outcome, this level of probability suggests a notable risk that is being priced in.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
AWS is the world's largest cloud computing provider, hosting critical infrastructure for millions of businesses and websites. Its overall reliability is very high, which is the main reason the "No" outcome is favored. However, a few factors support the 35% chance of a disruption. First, even robust systems can have unexpected failures, and AWS has experienced notable outages in the past despite its engineering excellence. Second, the cloud environment is constantly changing with software updates and new services, which can sometimes introduce unforeseen issues. Finally, the defined threshold for this market is a "disrupted" status on the AWS Health Dashboard, which can be triggered by regional or service-specific problems that don't necessarily equate to a total global blackout.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
There is no single scheduled event that would trigger a disruption. Instead, the risk is ongoing. However, periods following major AWS service updates or infrastructure changes could see a temporarily higher risk of issues. The market will resolve automatically on April 30 based on the public AWS Health Dashboard, which is the official source for any service event announcements.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets are generally effective at aggregating diverse information about event probabilities, especially for clear, yes/no outcomes like this one. For technical events like service disruptions, the accuracy depends heavily on the collective expertise of the traders involved. A limitation here is the relatively low trading volume, which means fewer people are contributing their knowledge. This could make the current probability less robust than a heavily traded market. The final outcome will be objectively determined by a public AWS status page, which removes any ambiguity in resolution.
Current Market Outlook
The Polymarket contract "AWS service disrupted by April 30?" is trading at 35%. This price indicates the market assigns a low probability, roughly one-in-three odds, that Amazon Web Services will experience a publicly reported service disruption event by the April 30, 2026 deadline. With zero trading volume, this is a highly illiquid market reflecting minimal speculative interest rather than a consensus forecast.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The 35% price primarily reflects AWS's historical operational resilience, not an expectation of imminent failure. AWS maintains a global infrastructure designed for high availability, and severe, dashboard-reported disruptions are statistically rare events. The market's baseline probability likely incorporates the constant, low-level risk of software deployment errors, configuration changes, or localized infrastructure issues that could trigger a qualifying event. However, the complete lack of trading volume suggests no active market thesis is pushing the price; it is essentially a placeholder figure.
What Could Change These Odds
Any significant shift in this market would require a clear, proximate catalyst. A major incident at another large-scale cloud provider, like Microsoft Azure or Google Cloud, could temporarily increase perceived systemic risk and drive the "Yes" price higher. More directly, any credible public reporting of a serious vulnerability within AWS core services or a regional power/network failure could cause a rapid repricing. In the absence of such news, this market will likely remain stagnant with its current low-probability assessment until much closer to the resolution date.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.