Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. Marist Red Foxes
Total Volume
$16.18K
Events
1
Markets
1
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. Marist Red Foxes
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $16.18K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $16.18K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. Marist Red Foxes
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 37% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
37%
Top Probability
$16.18K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the CBB game between Saint Peter's Peacocks and Marist Red Foxes on March 1 at 2:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets give Saint Peter's about a 1 in 3 chance of beating Marist. With the current odds at 37%, traders collectively see a Marist victory as more likely. This isn't an overwhelming favorite, but it suggests a clear, if modest, edge for the Red Foxes in this college basketball matchup.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors are likely shaping these odds. First, the teams' conference records matter. Saint Peter's plays in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC). At the time of writing, Marist holds a better MAAC win-loss record than Saint Peter's. Season-long performance heavily influences game predictions.
Second, the location of the game is important. This game is scheduled to be played at Marist's home court in Poughkeepsie, New York. In college basketball, home teams win more often than not because of familiar surroundings and fan support. This home court advantage is a standard factor that moves prediction market odds.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The main event is the game itself, scheduled for Friday, March 1, at 2:00 PM ET. The only thing that could change the prediction before then is unexpected team news. A key player being announced as injured or unable to play during the day on March 1 could shift the odds. Otherwise, the market will resolve shortly after the game ends.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular season college basketball games, prediction markets are fairly reliable. They efficiently combine public information like team records, location, and recent performance. However, their accuracy has limits. A 37% probability still means an upset happens over a third of the time. Markets can also be slow to react to last-minute lineup changes or simply get it wrong if a team performs far outside its usual pattern on a given day.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets assign Saint Peter's a 37% chance to defeat Marist on March 1. This price indicates the Peacocks are clear underdogs. With a probability this low, the consensus expects a Marist victory. The market has thin liquidity, with only $16,000 in total wagers, so this price may be more sensitive to individual bets than a heavily traded market.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The odds directly reflect the teams' positions in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) standings and a significant talent gap. Saint Peter's entered this game with a 12-12 overall record, while Marist held a 15-9 record and was competing for a top conference tournament seed. Marist's defense has been a consistent strength all season, ranking among the MAAC's best in points allowed. Saint Peter's, despite its legendary 2022 NCAA Tournament run, has struggled with offensive consistency this year, often failing to score 70 points. The market is pricing in Marist's superior record and defensive system as decisive advantages on its home court.
What Could Change These Odds
In a low-liquidity market, a single large bet could shift the odds meaningfully, but the fundamental outlook was stable. The only major catalyst would be a last-minute announcement of a key player missing the game due to injury or illness. For Marist, an absence of a primary scorer or defender could narrow the perceived gap. For Saint Peter's, their path to an upset relies on replicating the low-possession, defensive grind that defined their 2022 success, hoping to muck up the game and keep the score in the 50s or low 60s. Without such a disruptive event or game script, the market correctly viewed a Peacocks win as a lower-probability outcome.
Editor's Note: This game was played on March 1, 2024. Marist Red Foxes defeated Saint Peter's Peacocks by a score of 70-59, validating the market's prediction.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.