GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner

Name: Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner
End: 2026-09-13T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$63.90K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner

Vol

$63.90K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $63.90K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $63.90K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Poly	69%
Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Poly	16%
Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Poly	9%
Will Thorsten Wassermann win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Poly	3%
Will Oliver Hasskamp win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Poly	1%
Will Thomas Groß win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$63.90K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The next Osnabrück mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 13, 2026, to elect the mayor of Osnabrück, Germany (Oberbürgermeister der Stadt Osnabrück). A runoff election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Osnabrück as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Osnabrück Mayoral Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 13, 2026 (9 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The next Osnabrück mayoral election is scheduled to be held on September 13, 2026, to elect the mayor of Osnabrück, Germany (Oberbürgermeister der Stadt Osnabrück). A runoff election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, if no candidate receives more than half of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Osnabrück as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will 

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $63.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $44.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.44)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $47.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $13.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Thomas Groß win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $284
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Oliver Hasskamp win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $449
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Thorsten Wassermann win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $545
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics