GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Name: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$264.87K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

Vol

$264.87K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $264.87K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $264.87K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	39%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	Poly	37%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	5%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	4%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	1%
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	0%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	0%
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$264.87K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, September 6, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $264.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $375.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.71)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $29.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $11.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $12.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $7.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $87.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics