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Guadalajara vs Toluca: Spread

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Guadalajara vs Toluca: Spread

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Polymarket

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4 markets tracked

Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?	Kalshi	26%
Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals?	Kalshi	16%
Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals?	Kalshi	12%
Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

26%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

CDG vs TOL (Jul 18) If Toluca wins by more than X goals in the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Guadalajara vs Toluca: Spread
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** CDG vs TOL (Jul 18)

If Toluca wins by more than X goals in the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 2, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHISports

Guadalajara vs Toluca: Spread

Volume$0.00

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KALSHI

Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHISports

Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

If Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will clos

KALSHI

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHISports

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals?

If Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and

KALSHI

Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHISports

Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals?

If Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will clos

KALSHI

Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHISports

Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals?

If Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and

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Guadalajara vs Toluca: Spread

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Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

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Events (1)

Guadalajara vs Toluca: Spread

Markets (4)

Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals?

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Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

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Guadalajara vs Toluca: Spread

Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Guadalajara wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Toluca wins by more than 1.5 goals?

Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Guadalajara wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals?

Toluca wins by more than 2.5 goals?

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