This prediction market focuses on the X (formerly Twitter) posting activity of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, during a specific one-week period in 2026. The market resolves based on the number of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts published by the verified account @khamenei_ir between March 27 and April 3, 2026. Replies are excluded from the count. The market tracks a digital behavior that has become a significant channel for Khamenei's political and religious messaging. His social media output is closely monitored by analysts, diplomats, and regional observers as a barometer of Iran's political priorities, internal stability, and foreign policy posture. The chosen date window in late March and early April is historically significant in Iran, encompassing the Persian New Year (Nowruz) and often preceding the national holiday of Islamic Republic Day on April 1. Khamenei's communication during this period typically includes New Year messages, commentary on domestic affairs, and statements on international relations. Interest in this market stems from using quantifiable social media data to gauge the Supreme Leader's public engagement level, which can signal his health, the regime's confidence, or its focus on specific ideological or geopolitical issues.

Historical Context

Ali Khamenei's use of social media began in earnest during the 2009 Green Movement protests, when opposition activists used Twitter to organize. The government initially condemned the platform but later adopted it for counter-messaging. Khamenei's Persian-language account (@Khamenei_fa) was created in December 2009, and his English account (@khamenei_ir) followed in 2011. His posting patterns have shown clear trends. During periods of domestic unrest, such as the 2017-2018 protests and the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, his posting frequency often increased as he used the platform to condemn 'rioters' and affirm regime stability. Conversely, during sensitive diplomatic moments, like the negotiation periods for the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), his posts focused on 'Resistance Economy' themes and skepticism of the West. The week spanning late March and early April has specific historical relevance. On March 31, 2015, Khamenei gave a Nowruz speech that set 'red lines' for nuclear negotiations. On April 1, 2023, he used a Nowruz message to criticize Western-style democracy. His annual Nowruz posts consistently frame the new year around themes of national resilience and opposition to 'arrogant powers,' a term he uses for the United States and its allies.

Frequently Asked Questions