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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the SD-AL House seat? | Poly | 92% |
Will the Democratic Party win the SD-AL House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 election for South Dakota's at-large congressional district (SD-AL) in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by official ballot listings and major media calls following the November 4, 2026, midterm elections. South Dakota has a single at-large House seat, making every statewide House election a winner-take-all contest for the state's sole representative. This seat has been held by Republicans since 2011, but its outcome is watched as a barometer of political trends in the Northern Plains. The 2026 race will occur during the second half of what could be either a second Biden term or a new presidential administration, adding national significance to a local contest. Political observers analyze this district for clues about rural voting patterns, the strength of the Republican Party's hold on the Great Plains, and potential Democratic inroads in states with small populations. The race attracts attention from national party committees and political action committees who view it as a relatively inexpensive opportunity to influence the House's partisan balance.
South Dakota's at-large congressional district was created when the state entered the Union in 1889. For most of its history, the seat alternated between Republican and Democratic control, reflecting the state's competitive political nature through the mid-20th century. A significant shift occurred in the 1970s and 1980s as the state became more reliably Republican in federal elections. Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin broke this trend, winning a special election in 2004 and serving until 2011. Her tenure was an exception during a period of increasing Republican dominance. Since Herseth Sandlin's defeat by Republican Kristi Noem in the 2010 Republican wave election, the seat has remained in Republican hands. Noem held the seat until 2018, when she was elected governor and succeeded by Dusty Johnson. Johnson's elections in 2018, 2020, and 2022 resulted in margins of victory exceeding 60 percentage points, cementing the district's status as one of the safest Republican seats in the country. The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won South Dakota was in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried the state.
The outcome of South Dakota's lone House seat matters for national governance because every seat contributes to the partisan majority needed to control the House of Representatives, elect the Speaker, and set the legislative agenda. A party flip in this district would signal a major political realignment in the Northern Plains, potentially indicating vulnerability for Republicans in other rural states. For South Dakotans, the election determines who will advocate for the state's interests on critical committees dealing with agriculture, Native American affairs, and infrastructure funding. The representative's party affiliation influences their access to leadership and their ability to secure federal projects and policy concessions. A change in party control could affect the implementation of the Farm Bill, management of the Missouri River system, and funding for tribal nations, including the Oglala Sioux and Rosebud Sioux tribes.
As of early 2025, no major candidates have officially declared for the 2026 South Dakota at-large House race. Incumbent Representative Dusty Johnson has not announced whether he will seek a fifth term. The political environment is in a preliminary phase, with potential candidates likely waiting for Johnson's decision before committing. National party committees have not released target lists for the 2026 cycle. The 2024 election results for federal offices in South Dakota, where Republicans won all statewide and federal races by wide margins, reinforce the district's strong Republican tilt heading into the next election.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2026. This is the date set for the 2026 midterm elections across the United States. Party primaries to select nominees will occur earlier in 2026, with specific dates set by South Dakota state law.
South Dakota has one congressional district, designated as the at-large district (SD-AL). Due to its population, the state is entitled to only one representative in the U.S. House, so the entire state votes for a single House member.
The current representative is Republican Dusty Johnson, first elected in 2018. He succeeded Kristi Noem, who left the House after being elected Governor of South Dakota. Johnson is serving his third term after winning re-election in 2020 and 2022.
The last Democrat to represent South Dakota in the House was Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who served from 2004 until her defeat in the 2010 election. No Democrat has won the seat since then, making the current Republican hold 14 years long as of 2025.
Representative Dusty Johnson serves on the House Committee on Agriculture and the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. These assignments are strategically important for South Dakota, given the state's significant agricultural economy and infrastructure needs.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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