SD-AL House Election Winner
PM $37.5K
1
2
SD-AL House Election Winner
PM $37.5K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Marty Jackley (R) at 95%.
Polymarket
- Marty Jackley (R)95%
- Nikki Gronli (D)4.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $37.5K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event, "SD-AL House Election Winner," resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections, which the source states will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The rules define a candidate's party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned to a party based on which party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time [1].
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the market resolves on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1].
The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time for the contract. It is not a record of when the seat was called or when the market resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The saved sample contains two Polymarket contracts from one event. One asks whether the Republican Party wins the seat, with a Yes price of 0.95. The other asks whether the Democratic Party wins the seat, with a Yes price of 0.042 [1]. The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T19:29:23.900Z [1]. These are snapshots from that observation time. They are not live prices, executable quotes, or verified probabilities.
Because the two contracts ask different questions, their prices should be read separately. The sample includes all saved markets for this event, with two of two included and no partial sample flag [1]. The source also states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome in the real-world race [1]. The sample therefore does not show whether other outcomes exist or are priced.
Both markets come from a single platform, so there is no cross-platform comparison here. Wording or close times on other platforms could differ, but none are supplied.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and it does not show how many traders hold each view. Volume figures are not included in this summary and would not indicate liquidity even if they were.
The evidence also does not include results, election calls, or any reporting after the observation time. Readers should check the resolution sources named in the contract rules and the provider's current status before drawing conclusions about the race.
References
- Polymarket: SD-AL House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia's SD-AL House Election Winner event is a Polymarket contract tied to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules state that the midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The event's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The contract resolves on party, not on the candidate's name. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican party is assigned to one of those parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at that same point [1]. The rules set a resolution hierarchy. The market resolves based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on the official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The saved event includes two binary markets. One asks whether the Republican Party will win the SD-AL House seat, with a Yes price of 0.95 and a No price of 0.05. The other asks whether the Democratic Party will win the seat, with a Yes price of 0.042 and a No price of 0.958 [1]. These figures are snapshots from the observation time, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Both markets are shown as active in the saved data. The Texas House elections page in the supplied sources covers a different set of races. It notes that the 2026 Texas House elections will be held on November 3, 2026, and that primaries took place on March 3, 2026 [2]. It does not describe the SD-AL seat and should not be read as information about this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party will hold the SD-AL U.S. House seat after the 2026 midterm elections, as defined by the party rules and resolution sources in the event description [1]. Because the rules tie the outcome to the party identified when the House elections are conclusively called, the contract depends on how that call and the candidate's affiliation are determined, not on prior or announced positions alone [1]. A market that tracks party control of one seat can serve as a compact way to follow a single race, but the snapshot prices only reflect the saved observation and the rules govern the eventual outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event does this contract resolve on?
It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [1].
How is the winning party decided if a candidate is an independent?
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is treated as a member of one of those parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus, measured when the House elections are conclusively called [1].
What source is used to resolve the market?
The market resolves on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Do the prices show the probability of each party winning?
The saved prices are snapshots from the observation time, such as 0.95 for a Republican win and 0.042 for a Democratic win. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
When is the contract scheduled to end?
The listed end time in the saved event is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, and the rules state that the midterm elections take place on November 3, 2026 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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