Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?

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$13.02K

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Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?

Vol

$13.02K

Events

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Kalshi

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.02K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $13.02K

100%

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8 markets tracked

Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	94%
Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	83%
Will Republicans receive above 9% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	61%
Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	47%
Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	17%
Will Republicans receive above 16% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	8%
Will Republicans receive above 14% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	7%
Will Republicans receive above 18% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

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$13.02K

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About This Event

On Nov 6, 2026 If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican, or Rep., column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable, use CBS Ne

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Nov 6, 2026

If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage shown in the Republican, or Rep., column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time. If it remains unavailable, use CBS Ne

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Republicans receive above 9% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republicans receive above 18% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Republicans receive above 16% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Republicans receive above 14% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 6, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?

Volume$13.02K

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KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary r

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.0¢No 17.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary r

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 9% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 9% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 9%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary r

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary

KALSHI

Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 12%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table. The primary

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/qn8XGF" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?"></iframe>

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Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?

Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?

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Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Events (1)

Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?

Markets (8)

Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 9% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 9% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Midterms: Republican share of Black vote?

Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 6% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 8% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 9% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 9% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 10% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

Will Republicans receive above 12% of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll?

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