Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting? | PredictPedia

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11 markets tracked

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	74%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	61%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	47%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	32%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	13%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	12%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	11%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	8%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	6%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	5%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?	Kalshi	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Dec 9, 2026

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than X following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

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Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

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Events (1)

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

Markets (11)

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?

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