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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat? | Poly | 86% |
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat? | Poly | 15% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for South Carolina's 1st congressional district (SC-01). The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate after all 2026 House races are officially called by designated resolution sources. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. The district covers coastal areas including Charleston, Hilton Head Island, and Beaufort. SC-01 is considered a competitive district that has shifted between Republican and Democratic control in recent cycles, making it a bellwether for national political trends. The 2026 race will occur during the second half of what could be either a second Biden term or a new presidential administration, adding significance to the outcome as a measure of the national political environment. Political analysts monitor this district because its demographic mix of affluent suburbs, military communities, and coastal retirees often reflects broader electoral patterns. The race will test both parties' messaging on issues like economic policy, coastal environmental management, and national security, given the district's military installations. Interest in this market comes from political observers, researchers studying electoral trends, and those analyzing how redistricting and demographic changes affect congressional balance.
South Carolina's 1st congressional district has a complex political history. From Reconstruction through most of the 20th century, it was a Democratic stronghold as part of the Solid South. This changed with the political realignment of the 1960s and 1970s. Republican Mendel Davis held the seat from 1971 to 1981, but Democrat Tommy Hartnett then won it and served until 1987. The district shifted decisively toward Republicans in the 1980s. Republican Arthur Ravenel Jr. won in 1986 and served until 1995, establishing Republican dominance that would last for decades. From 1995 to 2019, Republicans held the seat continuously, with representatives including Mark Sanford (1995-2001, 2013-2019) and Henry Brown (2001-2011). This Republican streak ended in 2018 when Democrat Joe Cunningham won by 1.4 percentage points, benefiting from anti-Trump sentiment in suburban areas and Sanford's retirement. Cunningham's victory marked the first time a Democrat had won the district since 1978. However, the Democratic hold was brief. In 2020, Republican Nancy Mace defeated Cunningham by 1.3 points, returning the district to Republican control. The 2022 election saw Mace win reelection by 14 points against Democrat Annie Andrews, suggesting some stabilization but not eliminating the district's competitive nature. This volatility makes SC-01 one of fewer than 40 truly competitive House districts nationwide.
The SC-01 election outcome will signal whether coastal suburban districts that shifted toward Democrats in the late 2010s are reverting to Republican preferences or establishing new political patterns. These districts often determine which party controls the House of Representatives. A Republican victory would suggest continued strength in Sun Belt suburbs, while a Democratic win could indicate broader electoral challenges for Republicans in educated suburban areas. The district contains significant military assets including Joint Base Charleston, Marine Corps Recruit Depot Parris Island, and Beaufort Marine Corps Air Station. The representative's approach to defense spending and veterans' affairs directly affects local economies and thousands of military families. Environmental policy is particularly consequential here because coastal communities face regular flooding, hurricane damage, and sea level rise. Congressional decisions on climate adaptation funding, flood insurance, and offshore drilling directly impact property values and insurance costs for district residents. The election also tests whether anti-Trump sentiment that helped Democrats in 2018 has dissipated or transformed into different voting patterns.
As of late 2024, Representative Nancy Mace is seeking reelection in the November 2024 contest against Democrat Michael B. Moore. The outcome of this election will shape the 2026 race, as an incumbent victory would make Mace a two-term representative seeking a fourth term in 2026, while a Moore victory would create a first-term Democratic incumbent defending the seat. Redistricting is not expected before 2026, as South Carolina completed its congressional map in 2022 following the 2020 census. That map withstood legal challenges, though the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in 2023 about whether it constituted an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. A ruling against the map could trigger redrawing before 2026. Fundraising for the 2026 cycle will begin in early 2025, with candidate filings due in March 2026.
SC-01 includes all of Beaufort, Berkeley, Charleston, Dorchester, and Jasper counties. Major cities include Charleston, North Charleston, Mount Pleasant, Summerville, Beaufort, and Hilton Head Island.
The district changed party control twice in the four elections from 2018 to 2022. Democrat Joe Cunningham won in 2018, Republican Nancy Mace won in 2020, and Mace won reelection in 2022. Before 2018, Republicans held the seat for over 30 years.
Key issues include coastal flooding and climate resilience, military and veterans affairs, economic development, and healthcare. The district's vulnerability to hurricanes and sea level rise makes environmental policy particularly salient.
Candidate filing typically opens in March 2026 and closes in April 2026 for South Carolina congressional elections. Primary elections will be held in June 2026, with runoff elections in late June if no candidate receives a majority.
SC-01 is among approximately 35 districts rated as competitive by multiple political analysts. It shares characteristics with other coastal Southern districts like Virginia's 2nd and North Carolina's 7th, which have mixed urban-suburban-rural compositions and have shifted between parties.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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