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Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Name: Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.66K

Events

Markets

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Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.66K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.66K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	Poly	36%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consen

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike between February 28 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before mar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

28d 19h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

36¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

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Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?

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Events (1)