Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

Name: Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?
End: 2026-10-27T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.70K

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Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

Vol

$7.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

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Polymarket

markets · $7.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.70K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	35%
Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	33%
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	28%
Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	9%
Will Otzma win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$7.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candid

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 27, 2026 (16 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Otzma Yehudit merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candid

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Otzma Yehudit in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.

If Otzma Yehudit contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or mor"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $29.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Otzma win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $943
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Otzma win 10 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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