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In 2026 If X has won Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
Prediction markets currently assign a high probability to the film Frankenstein winning the 2026 Oscar for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. On Polymarket, shares for "Yes" are trading near 89 cents, implying an 89% chance. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract is priced around 79 cents, creating a notable 10-point spread. An 89% probability indicates the market views this outcome as very likely, though not a complete certainty. With approximately $269,000 in total volume across related markets, there is moderate liquidity supporting these prices.
The overwhelming confidence stems from two primary factors. First, the film is a high-profile adaptation directed by Guillermo del Toro, a filmmaker renowned for his practical creature effects and makeup-driven aesthetics, as seen in Pan's Labyrinth and The Shape of Water. This pedigree makes the project a natural frontrunner in the category. Second, the specific subject matter, Mary Shelley's Frankenstein, is inherently a showcase for transformative makeup and prosthetic work to bring the iconic monster to life. Historical precedent shows the Academy heavily favors such technically demanding, character-altering work in this category, with recent winners like The Whale and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
The primary risk to the current consensus is the potential for another film to emerge as a technical standout during the late 2025 awards season. Key festivals like Venice, Telluride, and Toronto in late 2025 could premiere a surprise contender. Additionally, if Frankenstein's makeup effects are perceived as more digital than practical, it could weaken its position, as the category traditionally values tangible artistry. The voting window for Oscars nominations in January 2026 will be a critical period for reassessment based on screeners and industry buzz.
The significant 10% price differential between Polymarket (89%) and Kalshi (79%) presents a clear arbitrage opportunity. A trader could buy the "Yes" on Kalshy at a lower price and sell it on Polymarket at a higher price, locking in a profit if the outcome occurs. This spread likely exists due to differing trader demographics and liquidity pools. Polymarket's global, crypto-native user base may be more aggressively pricing in the narrative around del Toro's expertise, while Kalshi's US-regulated platform might attract traders applying more conservative historical analysis to a race that is still many months from its campaign peak.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific film, designated as 'X' in the market contract, will win the Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Oscars ceremony. The 98th Academy Awards are scheduled for March 15, 2026, where the winner of this competitive category will be announced. The market resolves to 'Yes' if film X is the official winner as declared by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). The category honors outstanding achievement in the design and application of makeup and hairstyling, recognizing the artists who transform actors and create characters through prosthetic work, period styling, and creative design. Interest in this market stems from the competitive nature of the Oscars, the significant artistic and technical achievement the award represents, and the financial and reputational impact a win can have on the careers of the artists and the film's legacy. Recent years have seen the category dominated by films featuring extensive prosthetic work, such as 'The Whale' and 'Maestro', or elaborate period and fantasy styling, like 'Cruella' and 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'. Predictors will analyze early contenders, guild award nominations (like the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards), and critical reception to gauge the frontrunner status of film X against its competitors.
The Academy Award for Best Makeup was first presented in 1981 for the 54th Academy Awards, recognizing the film 'An American Werewolf in London'. Initially, it was a non-annual award, only given when the Board of Governors determined there was a worthy achievement. It became a permanent annual category in 1993. The award's name was changed to Best Makeup and Hairstyling in 2012 for the 85th Academy Awards, formally acknowledging the integral contribution of hairstyling teams. This change reflected decades of collaborative work where hairstyling was essential to the overall character transformation, as seen in earlier winners like 'Frida' (2002). Historically, the award has favored two main types of work, transformative prosthetic character creation, as seen in wins for 'The Elephant Man' (1980, special achievement award), 'The Fly' (1986), and 'The Whale' (2022), and detailed period or biographical styling, exemplified by 'The Iron Lady' (2011) and 'Vice' (2018). A significant precedent was set in 2021 when 'Maestro' won, showcasing that a film does not need to be a major Best Picture contender to triumph in this craft category, as it was primarily recognized for its makeup achievement.
Winning the Oscar for Best Makeup and Hairstyling carries substantial professional and economic weight. For the individual artists and department heads, an Oscar win can double or triple their day rates, lead to more prestigious projects, and cement their legacy within the industry. It serves as the highest peer-validation of technical skill and artistic vision. For the film itself, a win can boost post-award box office revenue, streaming viewership, and home media sales, particularly for films where the makeup is a central selling point. The award also highlights the collaborative, technical artistry of filmmaking to a global audience, elevating crafts that are often overlooked by general viewers. Beyond the immediate winners, a victory influences industry trends, signaling to studios what types of projects and techniques are valued, which can guide greenlighting decisions and resource allocation for future films requiring significant makeup and hair work.
As of late 2024, the field for the 98th Academy Awards' Best Makeup and Hairstyling category is entirely open. No official eligibility list or shortlist has been released by AMPAS. Predictors are looking ahead to major studio releases scheduled for 2025 that are likely to require significant makeup and hairstyling work, such as biographical films, period pieces, and fantasy/sci-fi projects. The first major indicators will emerge in late 2025 when studios begin their 'For Your Consideration' campaigns and when the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild announces its award nominees in January 2026. The recent trend of honoring detailed biographical transformations, as seen with 'Maestro', may influence the types of projects that gain early buzz.
Films must first be accepted onto an official eligibility list by the Academy. Then, all members of the Makeup Artists and Hairstylists Branch vote to create a shortlist of seven films. Finally, a special nominating committee, comprising branch members and selected members from other branches, views presentations from the shortlisted films and votes to select the final five nominees.
All voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are eligible to vote for the winner in every category during the final ballot stage. This means the winner is chosen by the entire Academy membership, not just the makeup and hairstyling branch.
The Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards have multiple categories (e.g., Best Contemporary Makeup, Best Period Hairstyling) and are voted on solely by union members. The Oscars have a single combined category and are voted on by the broader Academy membership, though the Guild awards are a highly influential precursor.
No. The Academy's rules explicitly state that the award is for achievements in makeup and hairstyling that are created physically on the actor. Digital enhancements may be present, but the core achievement must be practical, applied work.
A maximum of four individuals can be nominated and potentially win for a single film, typically the department head makeup artist, the key hairstylist, and up to two additional primary contributors, as credited and approved by the Academy.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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16 markets tracked
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 89% | 2% |
| 4% | 6% | 2% |
| 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 0% | 1% | 0% |
| 0% | 1% | 0% |
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In 2026 If X has won Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Ma
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