Name: Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
End: 2026-03-18T00:00:00.000Z

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Fed decisions (Dec-Mar) | PredictPedia

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5 markets tracked

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	Poly	71%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	Poly	23%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	Poly	3%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	Poly	2%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	Poly	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 18, 2026 (62 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.

A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compa

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal O"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $273.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $78.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.50)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $32.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $48.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $55.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $20.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 18, 2026): Vol $116.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

61d 17h remaining

Mar 18, 2026 12:00 AM

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Average Yes Price

20¢

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Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

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Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

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Events (1)

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Markets (5)

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?

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