Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?

Name: Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?
End: 2026-10-20T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$92.50

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?

Vol

$92.50

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $92.50

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $92.50

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?	Poly	49%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$92.50

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Governme

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 20, 2026 (7 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?"

For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Governme

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $93
* **Total Liquidity:** $341
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $93
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld