World leaders out in 2026? | PredictPedia

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37 markets tracked

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(37)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	97%
Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	67%
Will Ali Khamenei leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	64%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	63%
Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	60%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	37%
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	35%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	33%
Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	32%
Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	31%
Will Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	21%
Will Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	20%
Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	19%
Will Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	17%
Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	16%
Will Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	14%
Will Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	14%
Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	13%
Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	13%
Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	13%
Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%
Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%
Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	10%
Will Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	10%
Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	10%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	10%
Will Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	9%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%
Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	8%
Will Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	7%
Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	7%
Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	7%
Will Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	7%
Will Frederik X leave King of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	5%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** World leaders out in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If X has either officially announced their intention to leave as Y or has actually left Y before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leav

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Delcy Rodriguez has either officially announced their intention to leave as Acting President of Venezuela or has actually left Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves,"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.15M
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Delcy Rodriguez leave Acting President of Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $268
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mette Frederiksen leave Prime Minister of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Frederik X leave King of Denmark before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jens-Frederik Nielsen leave Prime Minister of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Irfaan Ali leave President of Guyana before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $296
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $12.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $260.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Félix Tshisekedi leave President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $228
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Denis Sassou Nguesso leave President of the Republic of the Congo before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $114.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Lee Jae Myung leave President of South Korea before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Nayib Bukele leave President of El Salvador before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira leave President of Bolivia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Claudia Sheinbaum leave President of Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $71.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Daniel Noboa leave President of Ecuador before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $223
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Aleksandar Vučić leave President of Serbia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $414.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy leave President of Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $65.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $288.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $25.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Sanae Takaichi leave Prime Minister of Japan before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $27.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leave President of Türkiye before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Narendra Modi leave Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Mark Carney leave Prime Minister of Canada before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $8.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Mohammed bin Salman leave Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leave President of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $23.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $251.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 66.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Kim Jong Un leave Supreme Leader of North Korea before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $10.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Javier Milei leave President of Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Giorgia Meloni leave Prime Minister of Italy before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Emmanuel Macron leave President of France before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $36.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave President of South Africa before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $86.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Ali Khamenei leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.38M
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $19.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

World leaders out in 2026?

Markets (37)

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Ali Khamenei leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Ali Khamenei leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

World leaders out in 2026?

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Gustavo Petro leave President of Colombia before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Keir Starmer leave Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Ali Khamenei leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Ali Khamenei leave Supreme Leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Viktor Orbán leave Prime Minister of Hungary before Jan 1, 2027?

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