GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Name: Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-10-05T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$454.64K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Vol

$454.64K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $454.64K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $454.64K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	92%
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	7%
Will Rafa Luz win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	1%
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$454.64K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 5, 2026 (30 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, in"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $454.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $566.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.80)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $18.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $17.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $29.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $19.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $15.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $27.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $19.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $16.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $142.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $71.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $28.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Rafa Luz win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $17.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $18.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics