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Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

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Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

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Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	66%
Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	52%
Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	14%
Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	7%
Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	5%
Will Amy Coney Barrett resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	5%
Will Brett Kavanaugh resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	5%
Will Neil Gorsuch resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	5%
Will Elena Kagan resign during Trump's term?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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66%

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About This Event

During Trump's term If X resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. This market will close and expire early if the justice in question resigns or announces intent to do so.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** During Trump's term

If X resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. This market will close and expire early if the justice in question resigns or announces intent to do so.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Ketanji Brown Jackson resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the just"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Amy Coney Barrett resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Brett Kavanaugh resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Neil Gorsuch resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Elena Kagan resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

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KALSHI

Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

If Samuel Alito resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the justice in qu

KALSHI

Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

If Clarence Thomas resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the justice in

KALSHI

Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?

If John Roberts resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the justice in qu

KALSHI

Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.9¢No 93.1¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?

If Sonia Sotomayor resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the justice in

KALSHI

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?

If Ketanji Brown Jackson resigns or announces their intent to resign from the Supreme Court before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Death is not resignation and will not resolve a market to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the just

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Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

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Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

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About This Event

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Events (1)

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Markets (9)

Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?

Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?

Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?

Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?

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Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

Will Samuel Alito resign during Trump's term?

Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

Will Clarence Thomas resign during Trump's term?

Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?

Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term?

Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?

Will Sonia Sotomayor resign during Trump's term?

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson resign during Trump's term?

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