This prediction market topic concerns the possibility of a coup attempt in Venezuela occurring before March 31, 2026. A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government. The question arises from Venezuela's prolonged political and economic crisis, characterized by hyperinflation, mass emigration, and contested governance under President Nicolás Maduro. His 2018 re-election was widely disputed, leading to an interim government recognized by dozens of countries. While opposition leader Juan Guaidó's parallel government has largely dissolved, deep fractures within the military and state institutions persist. Recent developments, including the easing of some U.S. sanctions in 2023 followed by their reimposition in 2024 after Maduro failed to meet electoral guarantees, have renewed focus on internal stability. Observers monitor military loyalty, economic distress, and opposition cohesion as factors that could precipitate an attempt to seize power by force, making this a subject of significant geopolitical and market interest.

Historical Context

Venezuela has experienced multiple coup attempts and political instability throughout its modern history. The most significant recent precedent was the 2002 coup against President Hugo Chávez, which briefly removed him from power for 47 hours before loyal factions and popular support restored him. This event solidified Chávez's control and led to purges within the military. Since Nicolás Maduro took power in 2013 following Chávez's death, the country has faced severe economic contraction. This decline has fueled political crises, including the 2014 and 2017 protest movements, which were met with harsh repression. In 2019, opposition leader Juan Guaidó, backed by the U.S. and other nations, declared himself interim president, leading to a standoff. An attempted military uprising on April 30, 2019, involving a small group of soldiers and Guaidó, failed to gain broad support. Another alleged plot involving a U.S. private security firm was foiled in 2020. These events demonstrate a pattern of contested legitimacy and sporadic, unsuccessful attempts to seize power, setting the stage for ongoing speculation about future coups.

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