$195.43K
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9
$195.43K
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9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on February 28, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for February 28, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution sourc
Traders on Polymarket are almost certain that Elon Musk’s net worth will fall between $660 billion and $670 billion on February 28, 2026. The market gives this specific range a 99% chance, which is about as confident as a prediction can get. This means the collective intelligence of the market sees it as a near certainty, with virtually no expectation that his wealth will be significantly higher or lower than that bracket on that specific date.
This high confidence stems from two main factors. First, Musk’s wealth is overwhelmingly tied to his ownership stakes in Tesla and SpaceX. The value of these companies, and therefore his net worth, is publicly tracked in real-time by indices like the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which this market uses for resolution. This creates a very clear and observable path to the outcome.
Second, the target date is still over 20 months away, but the market is pricing in remarkable stability. This suggests traders believe that, barring an extreme event, the current valuation drivers for Tesla and SpaceX will persist. Tesla’s stock price and the periodic funding rounds that set SpaceX’s valuation are not expected to swing wildly enough to push Musk’s net worth outside this $10 billion window. It reflects a view that his financial position has reached a plateau defined by these giant, established holdings.
While the market is highly confident, the primary variables are the quarterly earnings reports from Tesla and any major announcements regarding SpaceX funding rounds or a potential IPO. A significant breakthrough in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology or an unexpected setback in production could move the stock. Similarly, an official update on the timeline for a SpaceX Starlink IPO would be a major catalyst, as it could formally revalue a huge portion of his assets. General stock market volatility, especially in technology shares, also remains a constant influence.
Prediction markets are generally reliable for questions with clear, objective resolution sources, which this one has. However, this extreme confidence (99%) on a forecast so far in the future is unusual for financial outcomes. Markets are good at aggregating current information, but a 20-month forecast for a stock-dependent net worth is inherently speculative. The high probability likely says less about knowing the future and more about traders seeing no plausible near-term catalyst for change. The real test will be how this probability shifts as the date approaches and new information emerges.
The Polymarket contract for Elon Musk's net worth on February 28, 2026, shows extreme confidence in a specific outcome. The share price for the bracket "$660 billion to $670 billion" is trading at 99 cents, implying a 99% probability. This near-certainty indicates traders believe Musk's wealth will be almost exactly within that $10 billion window on the target date. With $193,000 in total volume, the market has sufficient liquidity for this consensus to be meaningful. The resolution is imminent, as the date has passed and the market awaits the final Bloomberg Billionaires Index data point.
This precise pricing directly reflects Musk's reported net worth on the target date. Public data from February 28 showed his wealth calculated at approximately $666 billion, a figure driven almost entirely by the performance of Tesla stock. His fortune is highly concentrated in Tesla and SpaceX equity. In late February 2026, Tesla's share price experienced specific volatility that placed his net worth squarely within this narrow band. The market is not predicting a range, it is effectively reporting one, with traders aligning their positions to match the already-observable financial data from that day.
For a market resolving at 99%, the odds cannot meaningfully change. The event date has passed, and the final calculation from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index is the sole remaining variable. The only scenario that could alter the resolution is a significant revision or correction by Bloomberg to its published data for February 28, which is a rare occurrence. The market's function now is purely administrative, awaiting the official source to confirm the value that public market data has already effectively determined. This contract demonstrates how prediction markets can transition from forecasting tools to efficient settlement mechanisms for verifiable facts.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on Elon Musk's net worth as it will be reported on February 28, 2026. The market resolves based on a specific data point from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a daily ranking of the world's richest people. Musk's wealth, which has been the highest globally for periods since 2021, is not a static figure but a real-time estimate tied primarily to his holdings in publicly traded companies like Tesla and SpaceX. This creates a volatile valuation subject to stock market fluctuations, corporate performance, and Musk's own financial decisions, including stock sales or new funding rounds for his private companies. The interest in this specific future date stems from Musk's central role in major technological shifts, from electric vehicles to space exploration and artificial intelligence. Investors and observers track his wealth as a proxy for the success and market confidence in his ventures, which often have broader implications for entire industries. The question of where his net worth will land on a given day encapsulates uncertainties about Tesla's growth trajectory, SpaceX's valuation milestones, and the performance of his other companies like xAI and The Boring Company.
Elon Musk's rise to become one of the world's wealthiest individuals is a recent phenomenon driven by the explosive growth of Tesla. In early 2020, his net worth was estimated around $25 billion. Tesla's stock price increased by over 700% that year, catapulting Musk's wealth past $150 billion by year's end and making him the second-richest person globally. He first claimed the top spot on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index in January 2021. Musk's net worth peaked at nearly $340 billion in November 2021, coinciding with Tesla's stock price peak. This volatility is a key precedent. His wealth fell below $200 billion in 2022 as Tesla stock corrected, before recovering in 2023. Major historical events impacting his valuation include Tesla's inclusion in the S&P 500 in December 2020, which brought in massive institutional investment, and his acquisition of Twitter (now X) in 2022, which involved the sale of billions of dollars in Tesla stock to fund the deal. The 2024 court decision to rescind his 2018 compensation package removed a potential $56 billion in options from his net worth calculation, demonstrating how legal and governance issues can create sudden, large adjustments.
The trajectory of Elon Musk's net worth is a high-profile indicator of market sentiment toward transformative technologies. A rising valuation suggests investor confidence in the electric vehicle transition, the commercialization of space, and the development of artificial intelligence through xAI. Conversely, a significant decline could signal concerns about execution risks, market saturation, or regulatory challenges facing his core companies. For the broader economy, Musk's wealth level influences capital markets. Large planned sales of Tesla stock to fund other ventures, as seen with the Twitter acquisition, can pressure the share price and affect millions of retail and institutional investors. His net worth also has political and social dimensions. As one of the most recognizable figures in business, changes in his fortune are widely reported and feed into public debates about wealth concentration, executive compensation, and the power wielded by technology founders. The specific outcome on February 28, 2026, will be cited as evidence for narratives about whether his multi-company industrial strategy is succeeding or faltering.
As of early 2024, Elon Musk's net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index fluctuates around $210-$230 billion, keeping him among the top three richest people globally. The immediate focus is on Tesla's financial performance and demand outlook, which directly drives daily valuation changes. A major recent development is the Delaware court's invalidation of his 2018 Tesla pay package. Tesla's board and shareholders are now tasked with addressing this. Shareholders will vote on ratifying the same package and on a proposed move of Tesla's state of incorporation to Texas in mid-2024. The outcomes will significantly influence Musk's future equity compensation. Meanwhile, SpaceX continues its launch cadence and Starship development, with its valuation subject to change in any new private funding round.
Bloomberg values his holdings in public companies like Tesla using real-time stock prices and SEC filings for ownership stakes. For private companies like SpaceX, they use the latest known valuation from financing rounds or secondary market transactions, adjusting for market conditions and comparable public companies.
The performance of Tesla's stock (TSLA) is the largest factor. Since the majority of his wealth is tied to his Tesla stake, the company's sales growth, profitability, and market sentiment will have the greatest impact on the February 2026 valuation.
Yes, it is a possibility. SpaceX executives have discussed the potential for a Starlink spin-off IPO. A public listing for SpaceX or a major subsidiary before the resolution date would establish a concrete market value for Musk's stake, likely causing a large, one-time increase in his reported net worth.
Prediction market platforms using this source have detailed fallback procedures. Typically, they would use a snapshot from the Internet Archive (Wayback Machine) or designate an alternative authoritative source like Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List to ensure the market resolves.
Because it is dominated by stock in volatile companies. Tesla's stock price can swing 5-10% in a single day based on earnings reports or macroeconomic news. A 5% move on an $80 billion stake equals a $4 billion change in his net worth.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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