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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?

Name: California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$460.06

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?

Vol

$460.06

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $460.06

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $460.06

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$460.06

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherw"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $460
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $460
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics