This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Name: Iran nuclear test before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$185.99K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Vol

$185.99K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $185.99K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $185.99K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

10%

Top Probability

$185.99K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iran nuclear test before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardle"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $186.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.4K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Iran nuclear test before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $186.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics