Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Tech layoff rate in September

Total Volume

$266.06

Events

Markets

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Tech layoff rate in September

Vol

$266.06

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $266.06

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $266.06

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	85%
Tech layoff rate above 1.0% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	75%
Tech layoff rate above 1.2% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	65%
Tech layoff rate above 1.4% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Tech layoff rate above 1.6% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Tech layoff rate above 1.8% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Tech layoff rate above 2.0% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Tech layoff rate above 2.2% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Tech layoff rate above 2.4% in Sep 2026?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$266.06

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In Sep 2026 If the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry in September 2026 is greater than X then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “tech layoffs” refers exclusively to the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry reported in FRED series JTU5100LDR. This is a monthly, not seasonally adjusted rate expressed as a percentage. The market will resolve using the first value published for the specified month; subsequent revisions will not affec

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tech layoff rate in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Sep 2026

If the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry in September 2026 is greater than X then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “tech layoffs” refers exclusively to the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry reported in FRED series JTU5100LDR. This is a monthly, not seasonally adjusted rate expressed as a percentage. The market will resolve using the first value published for the specified month; subsequent revisions will not affec

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry in September 2026 is greater than 2.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “tech layoffs” refers exclusively to the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry reported in FRED se"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $266
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Tech layoff rate above 2.4% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Tech layoff rate above 2.2% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Tech layoff rate above 2.0% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Tech layoff rate above 1.8% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $253
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Tech layoff rate above 1.6% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Tech layoff rate above 1.4% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Tech layoff rate above 1.2% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Tech layoff rate above 1.0% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 3, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Tech layoff rate in September

Volume$266.06

Markets9

9 of 9

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KALSHI

Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.0¢No 15.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

If the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry in September 2026 is greater than 0.8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “tech layoffs” refers exclusively to the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry reported in FRED se

KALSHI

Tech layoff rate above 1.0% in Sep 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.0¢No 25.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Tech layoff rate above 1.0% in Sep 2026?

If the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry in September 2026 is greater than 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “tech layoffs” refers exclusively to the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry reported in FRED se

KALSHI

Tech layoff rate above 1.2% in Sep 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Tech layoff rate above 1.2% in Sep 2026?

If the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry in September 2026 is greater than 1.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “tech layoffs” refers exclusively to the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry reported in FRED se

KALSHI

Tech layoff rate above 1.4% in Sep 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.0¢No 58.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Tech layoff rate above 1.4% in Sep 2026?

If the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry in September 2026 is greater than 1.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “tech layoffs” refers exclusively to the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry reported in FRED se

KALSHI

Tech layoff rate above 1.6% in Sep 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢

KALSHICompanies

Tech layoff rate above 1.6% in Sep 2026?

If the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry in September 2026 is greater than 1.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, “tech layoffs” refers exclusively to the layoffs and discharges rate for the Information industry reported in FRED se

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39¢

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Tech layoff rate in September

Tech layoff rate in September

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Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Tech layoff rate in September

Markets (9)

Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.0% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.0% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.2% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.2% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.4% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.4% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.6% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.6% in Sep 2026?

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Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

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Tech layoff rate in September

Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 0.8% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.0% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.0% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.2% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.2% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.4% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.4% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.6% in Sep 2026?

Tech layoff rate above 1.6% in Sep 2026?

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