Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The market "Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 22?" resolves to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, in degrees Celsius, on 22 Oct '26 [1]. The stated resolution source is "the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day" [1]. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data exists by that time, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Readings are resolved to whole degrees Celsius [1].

Individual contracts ask whether the lowest temperature will fall in a specific bracket, such as 15°C, or in an open-ended bracket such as "9°C or below" or "19°C or higher" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not the observation date and not the final resolution. The rules state that the market resolves once the first data point for the following date is published, or by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, whichever comes first [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-21T12:37:37.588Z [1]. These figures describe that saved snapshot only. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.

The saved sample includes all 11 markets for this event and is not marked as partial [1]. Yes prices run from 0.195 for 13°C to 0.425 for 15°C [1]. Five brackets, at 10, 11, 16, 17 and 18°C, each show a Yes price of 0.335 [1]. The Yes prices across all 11 brackets add up to roughly 2.9. Because these brackets are not mutually exclusive in a coherent distribution, the prices should not be summed or read as a complete forecast. Differences between brackets reflect only the quoted snapshot values, and this evidence does not explain them.

What remains uncertain

The provider notes that the sample reflects the saved event and does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1]. No other platform appears in this evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Volume, liquidity, and number of traders are not in the supplied evidence, so no conclusions about them can be drawn. The rules also allow a market to remain open for up to seven calendar days if the resolution source publishes clearly erroneous data [1]. The status shown here was captured on 2026-10-21, and readers should check the current listing rather than treat it as today's status.

References

1. Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 22?. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z.