$48.15K
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$48.15K
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19
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2026-2027 college football season If X wins the College Football Heisman Trophy in the 2026-2027 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Arch Manning winning the Heisman Trophy for the 2026-2027 college football season. On Kalshi, the "Yes" contract for this specific outcome trades near 17 cents, implying roughly a 17% chance. This pricing suggests the market views Manning as a notable contender, but far from a favorite, in a field historically dominated by upperclassmen quarterbacks on national championship contenders.
Two primary factors explain this early pricing. First, the immense pedigree and recruiting status of Arch Manning creates a persistent speculative floor. As the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and a top-ranked quarterback prospect at Texas, his brand recognition and perceived ceiling generate consistent long-term betting interest. Second, the timeline is a key consideration. The 2026-2027 season would likely be Manning's redshirt sophomore or junior year, a period when many recent winners like Caleb Williams and Bryce Young have claimed the award. The market is pricing in his developmental path aligning with that typical winner's arc.
However, the probability remains subdued due to significant uncertainty. Manning has yet to secure the starting quarterback job at Texas, facing competition within a stacked roster. Furthermore, team success is a critical Heisman criterion. The market cannot yet price in whether Texas will be a premier national title contender three seasons from now, a near-requirement for a quarterback to win the award.
These odds will be highly volatile and sensitive to on-field developments over the next two years. The first major catalyst will be Manning securing the definitive starting role at Texas, which would likely cause a probability spike. Subsequent performance, especially in high-profile games, will drive continual reassessment. The odds will also be heavily influenced by the competitive landscape for the 2026 season, including the emergence of other star players and Texas's position in the preseason rankings. A scenario where Manning is the established starter for a Texas team ranked in the preseason top five would see this 17% probability rise significantly. Conversely, a prolonged quarterback competition or a team performance slump would erode his chances.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The Heisman Memorial Trophy is the most prestigious individual award in college football, presented annually to the most outstanding player in the United States. For the 2026-2027 season, prediction markets are tracking which athlete will win this coveted honor, which has historically served as a leading indicator for future NFL success. The award is determined by a vote of 870 media members, 57 living Heisman winners, and one overall fan vote, with ballots due immediately after conference championship games in early December. The winner is typically announced during a televised ceremony in mid-December at the PlayStation Theater in Times Square, New York City. Interest in this prediction market stems from the award's cultural significance in American sports, its substantial impact on player draft stock and NIL valuation, and the competitive drama of tracking frontrunners throughout a season where performance in high-profile games often determines the outcome. The 2026-2027 race is particularly intriguing as it will feature athletes who are currently high school recruits or early college players, making long-term projection a complex exercise in evaluating talent development, team success, and media narrative.
The Heisman Trophy was first awarded in 1935 to University of Chicago halfback Jay Berwanger, who was also the first player ever selected in the NFL Draft. For decades, the award predominantly went to running backs, with players like O.J. Simpson (1968), Archie Griffin (1974, 1975, the only two-time winner), and Herschel Walker (1982) defining the award's early identity. A significant shift began in the 1990s with the rise of pass-oriented offenses, leading to increased quarterback success. Since 2000, quarterbacks have won 19 of 24 awards, reflecting the modern game's emphasis on passing statistics and quarterback leadership. The award has historically favored players from national championship contenders, with 44 of the 89 winners through 2023 coming from teams that played in the national championship game that season. Notable exceptions include 2016 winner Lamar Jackson, whose Louisville team finished 9-4, and 2022 winner Caleb Williams, whose USC team lost the Pac-12 championship. The voting process has evolved from regional balloting to a national electorate, with recent controversies involving NIL deals and transfer portal movement adding new dimensions to candidate evaluation.
The Heisman Trophy winner experiences immediate financial benefits through enhanced Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) valuation, with estimates suggesting winners can secure endorsement deals worth millions of dollars. For example, 2023 winner Jayden Daniels reportedly saw his NIL valuation increase by approximately 400 percent following his victory. The award also significantly impacts NFL Draft positioning, with 10 of the last 15 winners being selected in the first round, including four first overall picks. Beyond individual consequences, the Heisman shapes college football's cultural narrative, determining which programs receive national attention and influencing recruiting battles for years. The winner becomes the face of the sport for a generation, joining a fraternity that includes legends like Roger Staubach, Barry Sanders, and Tim Tebow. For universities, producing a Heisman winner boosts applications, alumni donations, and merchandise sales, creating an economic impact that often exceeds $50 million in increased revenue according to multiple university studies.
As of the 2024 offseason, the landscape for the 2026-2027 Heisman race remains speculative, with potential candidates currently in high school, early college careers, or considering additional eligibility through COVID-19 extensions. The 2024 and 2025 seasons will establish the frontrunners, as voters typically reward players who have built recognition over multiple seasons. The increasing influence of the transfer portal has created more volatility, with players like 2023 winner Jayden Daniels transferring from Arizona State to LSU before winning the award. Name, Image, and Likeness rules have added new dimensions to candidacies, with players at programs with strong NIL collectives potentially having advantages in building their brands throughout the season. The continued evolution of college football playoffs and conference realignment will also impact which teams and conferences receive the national spotlight necessary for Heisman consideration.
The winner is selected through a points-based voting system involving 870 media members across six regions, 57 living Heisman winners, and one overall fan vote through ESPN. Each voter selects three players, with first-place votes worth 3 points, second-place worth 2 points, and third-place worth 1 point. The player with the highest total points wins.
Yes, but only primarily defensive players have won twice. Michigan's Charles Woodson won in 1997 as a cornerback who also played wide receiver and returned punts, and Notre Dame's Leon Hart won in 1949 as a two-way end. Defensive players face significant voting bias, with no purely defensive winner in the award's history.
The trophy is cast in bronze and stands 13.5 inches tall, weighing 25 pounds. It depicts a football player stiff-arming with his right arm while carrying the ball in his left arm. The trophy is manufactured by Roman Bronze Works in New York and has an estimated production cost of $5,000, though its symbolic value is immeasurable.
Heisman winners are typically drafted significantly higher than non-winners with comparable statistics. Since 2000, 15 of 24 winners were first-round picks, with four going first overall. The award adds approximately 15-20 spots in draft position value according to NFL front office analytics.
Yes, but only one player has accomplished this feat. Ohio State's Archie Griffin won consecutive Heisman Trophies in 1974 and 1975. Several other players have finished in the top three after winning, including Tim Tebow (2007 winner, 3rd in 2008) and Baker Mayfield (2017 winner, 3rd in 2016).
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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19 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Arch Manning) | Kalshi | 17% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Dante Moore) | Kalshi | 13% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (CJ Carr) | Kalshi | 13% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Jeremiah Smith) | Kalshi | 12% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Julian Sayin) | Kalshi | 10% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Jayden Maiava) | Kalshi | 8% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Trinidad Chambliss) | Kalshi | 7% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele) | Kalshi | 7% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Marcel Reed) | Kalshi | 6% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Demond Williams Jr.) | Kalshi | 6% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Gunner Stockton) | Kalshi | 6% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Bryce Underwood) | Kalshi | 6% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Brendan Sorsby) | Kalshi | 6% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Malachi Toney) | Kalshi | 5% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (LaNorris Sellers) | Kalshi | 5% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Drew Mestemaker) | Kalshi | 5% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Bo Jackson) | Kalshi | 5% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Ahmad Hardy) | Kalshi | 5% |
Who will win Heisman Trophy? (Kewan Lacy) | Kalshi | 4% |
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