This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Marco Rubio visits China by...?

Name: Marco Rubio visits China by...?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$56.20K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Marco Rubio visits China by...?

Vol

$56.20K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $56.20K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $56.20K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?	Poly	90%
Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?	Poly	74%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$56.20K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Ru

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Marco Rubio visits China by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (169 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Ru

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio ente"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.38)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marco Rubio visit China by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Marco Rubio visit China by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $451
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics