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How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

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How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

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Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

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Market	Platform	Price
Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?	Kalshi	0%

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77%

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About This Event

Before Nov 3, 2026 If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is X 6, then the market resolves to Yes. To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold, regardless of District, for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesda

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Nov 3, 2026

If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is X 6, then the market resolves to Yes. To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold, regardless of District, for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesda

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is above 6, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of pri"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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KALSHIElections

How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

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KALSHI

Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is above 6, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of pri

KALSHI

Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.1¢No 88.9¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is exactly 6, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of p

KALSHI

Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.7¢No 93.3¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is exactly 5, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of p

KALSHI

Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

If the number of Democratic House members that lose their primary in 2026 is exactly 4, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To be included, candidates must: be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of p

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How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

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Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

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Events (1)

How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

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Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

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Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

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How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 5 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

Will exactly 4 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?

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