$923.96
1
7
$923.96
1
7
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized f
Prediction markets currently assign a 43% probability to Seattle receiving between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in January 2026. This price, trading on Polymarket, indicates the market views this outcome as the single most likely range among the listed buckets, but still sees it as less probable than all other outcomes combined. The market exhibits thin liquidity, with only about $1,000 in total volume spread across seven precipitation total brackets, which can lead to price volatility. The leading contract's sub-50% probability underscores significant uncertainty in forecasting specific accumulation nearly a year in advance.
The pricing reflects Seattle's well-documented climatological patterns combined with inherent long-range forecast uncertainty. Historically, Seattle's average January precipitation is approximately 5.57 inches, placing the 5-6 inch range directly in line with the climatic norm. This makes it a logical statistical favorite. However, the probability is tempered by the region's high interannual variability driven by atmospheric river events and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. Current long-range model guidance for early 2026 does not show a strong signal for an extreme wet or dry anomaly, leading traders to anchor expectations near the historical mean.
The primary catalyst for odds movement will be the evolution of the ENSO forecast through the latter half of 2025. A shift toward a strong El Niño or La Niña forecast by the Climate Prediction Center would significantly alter precipitation expectations for the Pacific Northwest, potentially pushing probability away from the median range and toward the higher or lower brackets. More immediate market moves may occur with the release of seasonal outlooks from NOAA and other agencies as the target month approaches. Given the current low liquidity, any notable weather model trends or major climate updates could cause sharp price swings in this thin market.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the total precipitation measured in inches that will fall in Seattle, Washington, during the month of January 2026. The outcome will be determined by official data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), specifically from the 'Monthly summarized data' for the Seattle City Area on the NOAA Weather Prediction Center website. This market allows participants to speculate on whether Seattle's famously wet winter weather will be above or below average, providing a financial instrument tied to a specific meteorological outcome. Seattle's winter precipitation is a subject of significant public and scientific interest due to its impact on water resources, infrastructure, and regional climate patterns. The interest in this specific forecast stems from the broader context of climate variability and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events in the Pacific Northwest. Accurate long-range precipitation forecasts are valuable for urban planning, agriculture, and water management agencies throughout the state of Washington. The market resolves based on a definitive, publicly verifiable data point from a trusted federal agency, making it a clear benchmark for evaluating predictive models and public sentiment against actual climatic conditions.
Seattle's climate is classified as temperate marine, characterized by dry summers and wet, mild winters. The city's reputation for rain is anchored in its winter months, with nearly half of its annual precipitation typically falling between November and February. Historically, January is one of the wettest months of the year. The official climate record for Seattle, maintained at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport since 1945, shows considerable variability in January precipitation. For example, January 1953 remains the wettest on record with 12.92 inches, while January 1985 was exceptionally dry with only 0.88 inches. This historical range demonstrates the significant swing potential inherent in the prediction. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of this variability. Strong El Niño events, such as those in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016, have often correlated with warmer and drier winter conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Conversely, La Niña phases can enhance the storm track and lead to wetter winters. The multi-decadal trend also shows a shift in precipitation type, with more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow in the surrounding mountains due to warming temperatures, a trend documented by the University of Washington and state agencies.
The total January precipitation in Seattle is a critical early indicator for the region's annual water budget. Winter rainfall replenishes the Cascade Mountain snowpack, which acts as a natural reservoir, slowly releasing water through spring and summer melt. This snowpack is the primary water source for Seattle's municipal supply, agricultural irrigation in Eastern Washington, and hydroelectric power generation along the Columbia River system. A significantly dry January can trigger early concerns about summer water shortages, impacting farmers, fisheries like salmon runs that depend on cool stream flows, and wildfire risk later in the year. Conversely, an extremely wet January can lead to urban flooding, landslides on unstable slopes, and disruptions to transportation and commerce. For the city itself, precipitation directly affects infrastructure costs, from stormwater management to road maintenance, and influences daily life for its residents. Beyond practical concerns, this data point is a valuable snapshot in ongoing climate research, helping scientists calibrate models and understand how global climate change is manifesting in regional precipitation patterns.
As of late 2024, the Climate Prediction Center's long-range outlooks for the winter of 2025-2026 have not yet been issued. The state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific during the latter half of 2025 will be the primary factor shaping those forecasts. Current climate models and research focus on near-term trends, such as the observed increase in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric river events impacting the West Coast. The City of Seattle and Washington State continue to invest in climate resilience planning based on projections for wetter winters and more variable precipitation. Market participants will closely monitor CPC outlooks and ENSO updates throughout 2025 to inform their positions on January 2026 precipitation.
Historically, November is typically the wettest month in Seattle, with an average of 6.57 inches of precipitation based on the 1991-2020 climate normals. December and January are also very wet, with averages of 5.98 inches and 5.35 inches, respectively.
During El Niño events, the Pacific jet stream often shifts southward, leading to warmer and drier than average winter conditions in the Pacific Northwest, including Seattle. This typically results in lower winter precipitation and reduced mountain snowpack.
The official climate data for Seattle is recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA). This location has been the primary official climate station for the city since 1945, and its data is used by NOAA for climate records and normals.
An atmospheric river is a long, narrow corridor of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere. When these 'rivers in the sky' make landfall, particularly along the West Coast, they can produce extreme rainfall and are responsible for a significant portion of Seattle's heaviest precipitation events and flood risks.
Seasonal precipitation forecasts, like those for a specific month, have limited skill and are expressed probabilistically. They are most reliable when strong climate signals like El Niño or La Niña are present. Forecast accuracy improves significantly as the target date approaches.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
7 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 43% |
 | Poly | 42% |
| Poly | 38% |
 | Poly | 36% |
 | Poly | 24% |
 | Poly | 12% |
 | Poly | 7% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/rVoHmh" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Precipitation in Seattle in January?"></iframe>